NOTE on 5-22-2012: Please follow me on Twitter (look just to the right) to get further updates.  The markets are still volatile and there are mixed Bullish and Bearish signals as mentioned in tonight’s Tweets.  The Europeans are meeting tomorrow and if they fail to satisfy the markets, our markets will pay the price.  A rally could also ensue if their actions are viewed as strong enough.

Once enough gains have been wiped out as they now have, you have to be more cautious about shorting or going passively short too late.  I’ll be looking for what appear to be valid bounces in the markets and report them on Twitter during the week as I am able to.  As I mention below, gold appears to be one such market at least if you are willing to take a smaller loss to achieve a greater gain.  So take the “SELLs” in the table below with a grain of salt, because we could turn up soon with some caveats.

Last week I commented about how the REIT Index (VNQ, RMZ) and utilities would catch up the general market slide – they did, with the REITs falling faster.  Utilities continue to sell off today with the UTY down 0.17% in the morning though attempting to recover (and the REITs are attempting to hold a rally on Monday, 5-21).

The volatility index (VIX) has blasted up through resistance and has plenty of room to rise further while the SP500 Index falls.  The banks are breaking support.  Housing, already mentioned, is on some support that must hold.  March 2011 support is last support before larger losses accrue.

The losses can be stemmed at any time with massive central bank action to reverse the European slide, but the markets have not yet turned.  That is the risk to the shorts.  Well, except for gold.  Gold hit an important support level and via Twitter I said it was a trading buy on a market timing basis with a stop on May 17^th: https://twitter.com/#!/SunAndStormInv/status/203134847722594305  The silver ETF, SLV, has retested fairly close to the Dec. 2011 low of 25.65 (reaching 25.99) and is now just below the Sept. 2011 low of 27.41 (UPDATE: closed above on 5-21-2012).

Investor sentiment may have finally become bad enough to support a rally.  Investor sentiment is about where it was in terms of the Bearish percent (45.97% this past Weds.) back on 9-29-2011 (46.79%) according to the AAII at AAII.com.  That was fairly close to a bottom in the markets, but there was one last whoosh down with a snapback recovery.   We may well see a similar quick plunge to wash out the fear based investors and then a recovery or we could slowly climb from here in the absence of Euro horrors this week.  I would not bet the farm that the sell-off is over, but I would take profits quickly on short positions in either a capitulation selling scenario or a gradual recovery from last weeks lows.

If you have not seen them yet, have a look at the charts from this week as well.

The Bonus Chart of the Week: http://www.sunandstorminvesting.com/index.html

 SP500 Index: http://www.sunandstorminvesting.com/sp500-index-sp500tracker.html

 GLD Gold ETF Chart: http://www.sunandstorminvesting.com/gld-etf-gold-market-timing.html

Enjoy your week! 

Standard Disclaimer: Remember, it’s your money and your decision as to how to invest it.

The above is the text from the 5-18-2012  “Weekly Wall Street Sun and Storm Report™.  To see the current issue and this week’s ratings of all 35 markets I follow and receive the newsletter every weekend, subscribe here: 

www.sunandstorminvesting.com/subscribe-to-sp500tracker-newsletter-and-tips.html

By the way, if you “liked” this post, please “Like” it below at the “Share” arrow below and/or re-Tweet it.

Enjoy your week!

And to follow my Buys and Sells and up to the minute insights, please follow and bookmark my Twitter feed here: http://Twitter.com/#!/SunAndStormInv

Copyright © 2012  By Wall Street Sun and Storm Report, LLC All rights reserved.

5-17-2012: The markets have broken down badly as I said they would if they did not hold April support levels.   They then cut through the March support level based on acceleratingly bad European bank news.   It is very good that we have gotten “passively short” and exited VNQ before it took a hit with the other markets as predicted on my homepage (sunandstorm.com).

The VIX had to hold below 19.20 on Friday to keep the market from sliding further, but it didn’t.  The SP500 Index (SPX, SPY) failed to close above April support once again after attempting a comeback.  Although you can never say never, the likelihood is more downside at this point, based on the failure of the reversal, which is a market timing signal.

What do the Bulls have?  The small caps have thus far held the April lows.  The Dow is still above support, so I guess some Bulls could tout that too.  And even the Dow Transports are levitating above support.  The Bears have the banks in tow.  They broke support Wednesday, then reversed above it on Thursday and fell back below Friday.  This is how markets sometimes test important support levels.  Too often I’ve seen markets steepen their losses with even these small drops below key levels.

Tech (NDX; QQQ) attempted to rally back above April support three times and failed.  That is bad for the Bulls as the market leader has been wounded.

Update 5-15-2012: The NDX (tech index; QQQ) is still below the April low at this time.  The first market timing signal of recovery from here would be a move above the April low.  It could then rally to the 50 day moving average before possibly breaking down once again.

Commodities are now in a full Bear 5 market (CRB Index).   Oil does have some support at the Dec. 2011 low, so we’ll see if it holds.  Meanwhile palladium (PALL), platinum (PLPT), gold (GLD), and silver (SLV) keep falling and falling.  At least jewelry is getting cheaper!

Check out the Bonus Chart of the Week and you can see how to make an anticipatory move in the market with the ETFs that hold up initially during a decline.  Now the trick is that it depends on how low things go.  If the SP500 Index drops much further, the REITs (VNQ, RWR, RMZ) and also the Utilities (XLU, UTY) will give up gains as well.  This is why I took my profits from those before they gave back much at all.  If you see the REITS retop, the Bulls will have another bit of strength to point to.

Whatever you do, consider averaging out as I did rather than removing all your money from the market in one move (and read update below please).  You can get back in, even if you have a paper loss when the market reverses.  Yes, you may be a little bit behind, but you have given that up to protect some of your capital.   Check out the passive shorting page on my main sites by searching for “passive shorting.”  I coined the term to help investors learn that there is an alternative to both buy and hold and outright shorting, which most investors are not going to do in my experience.  Shorting requires even more timing finesse vs. being “passively  short.”

Update on 5-15-2012: Some market timing analysts feel 1340 could hold for the SP500 Index and support a bounce, so selling into the next rally may turn out to be more effective than selling here.  One could then move one’s mental sell stop up as the rally occurs.  We are at 1342.81 as I type this, just above that 1340 support level.  We closed slightly below there yesterday, but this is allowed for a test of a support level; however, another close below the March low of 1340.03 would likely lead to a deeper correction.

If you have not seen them, have a look at the charts from this week as well.  They are listed on my “feed page” here:

Market Timing Chart Links (Top 3 links)

Standard Disclaimer: Remember, it’s your money and your decision as to how to invest it.

The above is the text from the 5-13-2012  “Weekly Wall Street Sun and Storm Report™.  To see the current issue and this week’s ratings of all 35 markets I follow and receive the newsletter every weekend, subscribe here: 

www.sunandstorminvesting.com/subscribe-to-sp500tracker-newsletter-and-tips.html

By the way, if you “liked” this post, please “Like” it below at the “Share” arrow below and/or re-Tweet it.

Enjoy your week!

And to follow my Buys and Sells and up to the minute insights, please follow and bookmark my Twitter feed here: http://Twitter.com/#!/SunAndStormInv

Copyright © 2012  By Wall Street Sun and Storm Report, LLC All rights reserved.

5-10-2012 UPDATE: Yesterday the SP500 Index closed just below support, which was at the April low. If the pop this morning holds on the close today , we can rise to at least the mid-April high or the 50 day moving average.  If the reversal above the April low is reversed on the close, we are apt to see a significantly lower low in the SP500 Index (SPY, SPX).   Investor sentiment is not negative enough to call an “all clear” as I mentioned on Twitter this morning (see the Tweet to the bottom right).   I’ll have more on that this weekend in the weekly newsletter. 

The old adage is “Sell in May and Go Away,” meaning that most of the year’s profits are made outside that time period, when the market is often weak.  Well this year, they went away in early April and came back to play a bit and went away again on May 1^st never exceeding the April high.

The VIX is blasting off again and has a few days to move up before meeting first resistance.  You can see the chart as the Bonus Chart this week (link below).  The banks are breaking and several indices as you can see in the MTT below are reaching or are at support.  They may bounce a bit from there and then we’ll see.

UPDATE 5-7-2012: The VIX barely came down today.  That is negative for the SP500 Index (SPY, SPX) and other stock indices.

I have been getting out of the way in stages and there is always the risk of exiting too early.  I Tweeted all my sells this past week.

What if the market goes right back up in one more zany move to the prior top and makes fools of all the Bears?  Then it will likely turn around and make the Bulls look foolish as it did this past week.  Apple’s stock is clearly not going to go to $1000/share in one move.  When you hear those huge numbers being bandied about it smells like 2000 all over again.   Do you remember when Qualcomm was supposed to go to the stratospheres? 

I told my Twitter followers that I’d explain my REIT sale on Friday morning.  It’s simple.  Look at the correlation on a Yahoo Finance comparison chart between the SP500 Index and VNQ.  You’ll see they are well correlated in general, so with the SP500 running down ahead of REITs I knew they would be next to fall.  Sometimes what is very popular in the market, and REITs have had a great run recently, are the last to fall.  Investors just cannot give up their concepts and turn on a dime to preserve profits.  Well, at least averaging out should help if an investor does not like 100% sells.

UPDATE 5-7-2012: Today was a place to sell higher, not buy.  Not yet anyway.

I told you I was stocking up on Munis a while back.  Municipal bonds are moving to new highs (PZA).  I favor buying individual munis if you can.  Now they are not as cheap, so I’ll wait to buy again.

The metals?  The silver ETF (SLV) recovered from a false breakdown in the chart, but needs to show more strength for a buy.  The gold ETF (GLD) is still above the red line seen in this week’s chart.  Above there, it must move through that down trend line you’ll see and then we’ll likely have a rally for a bit.  The gold stocks have been lambasted for weeks and to some, given the still relatively high price of gold represent true value here.  If gold does not hold support, that may no longer be the case.  With QE threatening to rear its head around the world, I feel gold will hold its own until recovery is really here.  There is still too much debt for gold to suffer.  Due to the debt, real interest rates are negative due to Central Bank actions and that is a huge support to gold prices.

UPDATE 5-7-2012: There was little movement for the SP500 Index which is Bearish.  This was a consolidation day and the momentum is still down barring some wildly Bullish news.

If you have not seen them, have a look at the charts from this week as well.  They are listed on my “feed page” here:

Market Timing Chart Links Here

Enjoy your week!

Standard Disclaimer: Remember, it’s your money and your decision as to how to invest it.

The above is the text from the 5-06-2012  “Weekly Wall Street Sun and Storm Report™.  To see the current issue and this week’s ratings of all 35 markets I follow and receive the newsletter every weekend, subscribe here: 

www.sunandstorminvesting.com/subscribe-to-sp500tracker-newsletter-and-tips.html

By the way, if you “liked” this post, please “Like” it below at the “Share” arrow below and/or re-Tweet it.

Enjoy your week!

And to follow my Buys and Sells and up to the minute insights, please follow and bookmark my Twitter feed here: http://Twitter.com/#!/SunAndStormInv

Copyright © 2012  By Wall Street Sun and Storm Report, LLC All rights reserved.

Published on 4-29-2012 (out each weekend)

The VIX is coming down and has plenty of room to fall to get to the March low.  That means the SP500 Index can rally back to the prior high or perhaps just below.  The Dow has already tested the closing high on 4-2-2012, so if we see a new Dow high that would be bullish.  The Dow Transports are lagging and should confirm a Dow breakout if it occurs.  If not, that would be a sign of weakness.  The banks (BKX) are supportive of the rally and recently bounced off of support of the 50 day moving average.

The market shrugged off the Spain debt downgrade last week.  That is very positive and is supportive of a further rally.  One complaint about the rally is that the volume is low.  But for the NDX (QQQ), the volume has not been that bad actually.  Both the NASDAQ and NDX recovered from their swoon that threatened a big break below the 50 day moving average.   There was no follow-through to the downside.

The lack of volume in some of the indices, may mean that we won’t see new recent highs soon, but it does not prevent a retest of the recent high and as I said, the Dow is already back testing the last high.  Oil is creeping up and commodities seem to have reversed from a bottom and both gold and silver look like favorable trades from here.  Silver is quite volatile and not for the gun shy investor.  I established a silver position on Friday in two steps, the second near the close.  I often split my trades into two parts on a given day and average in.  If I see a turn as with the gold miners (GDX) and silver (SLV), I’ll buy half a position and scale in the rest.  The energy complex is recovering now and provides support for the market.  Palladium, an industrial metal, is ahead of platinum (see PPLT), which would be a good trade with greater strength due to the fact that it has not yet recovered.  I have a position in GDX that I tweeted last week, but if you have the stomach for it, the junior miners could move even more.  They’ve endured a 50% Bear market and are bouncing from the 2010 low (GDXJ).

REITs are very strong and in a Bull 5 market.  I’ll be adding my last time to the point of having a full position with another small move up.  I added to ITB before housing blasted off, which was based on the technical pattern.  The breakout was on Weds. but without conviction.  Thursday and Friday were the lift off.  If you were watching Twitter last week you may have been along for that trade.

I was also buying more utilities (tweeted!) for both capital gains and dividends last week and completed buying my position (UTY).

I am moving all the major indices to holds, because we are only about 2-3% from the prior highs.  The next buys for me are the breakouts.

If you have not seen them, have a look at the charts from this week as well.  They are listed on my “feed page” here:

Market Timing Chart Links Here

Enjoy your week!

Standard Disclaimer: Remember, it’s your money and your decision as to how to invest it.

The above is the text from the 4-29-2012  “Weekly Wall Street Sun and Storm Report™.  To see the current issue and this week’s ratings of all 35 markets I follow and receive the newsletter every weekend, subscribe here: 

www.sunandstorminvesting.com/subscribe-to-sp500tracker-newsletter-and-tips.html

By the way, if you “liked” this post, please “Like” it below at the “Share” arrow below and/or re-Tweet it.

Enjoy your week!

And to follow my Buys and Sells and up to the minute insights, please follow and bookmark my Twitter feed here: http://Twitter.com/#!/SunAndStormInv

Copyright © 2012  By Wall Street Sun and Storm Report, LLC All rights reserved.

The VIX has actually been falling over the past 8 market days and the market (SP500 Index) has been edging up during that time with hesitations and not by much so far.  What is forming is an ascending triangle, where the bottom of the range is rising and the top of the range forms a line across the top.  That is Bullish, but to resolve this positively, we need an upside breakout.  A break through the base of the triangle could lead to another significant correction leg.

Here is the SP500 Market Timing Chart at the close for 4-23-2012 at low and high magnification (stocks created via FreeStockCharts.com – note to those who receive an email copy of these posts that you won’t see the charts except on the blog page itself; follow the link in your email to see the post w/ charts):

Note that the SP500 Index has broken below the 2011 high breakout point.  A big negative unless it recovers promptly.

The SP500 Index must now hold above that bottom red line and bounce or there is more damage to come.  The breach of the white uptrend line (base of an ascending triangle) is also a negative market timing signal.

4-25-2012 Update:

Testing resistance at the green line. Must hold above second red line below current price or another leg down will ensue. The Fed has its announcement on monetary policy this afternoon.

Other markets such as GLD and SLV (see chart link below for gold and the bonus chart is guess what?) are forming support levels that could really go either way.  In the end, I believe gold and silver will go higher, because central bank policy is not going to change until we are out of the debt situation and that way out is the further devaluation of the dollar.  The problem with silver is that in a slowdown, it can crash, so you must use a stop if you are hoping for a silver rally here.  Go back and look at 2008 to get an idea of the possible plunge that could occur for silver.  Of course, the reason investors like silver is because of the adrenaline rush they get from the skyrocketing periods and then when it falls, they run to the medicine cabinet.  Trade silver, I do at times along with gold when I see an edge or solid trend, but otherwise hold gold.

If you have not seen them, have a look at the charts from this week as well.  They are listed on my “feed page” here:

Market Timing Chart Links Here

Enjoy your week!

Standard Disclaimer: Remember, it’s your money and your decision as to how to invest it.

The above is the text from the 4-22-2012  “Weekly Wall Street Sun and Storm Report™.  To see the current issue and this week’s ratings of all 35 markets I follow and receive the newsletter every weekend, subscribe here: 

www.sunandstorminvesting.com/subscribe-to-sp500tracker-newsletter-and-tips.html

By the way, if you “liked” this post, please “Like” it below at the “Share” arrow below and/or re-Tweet it.

Enjoy your week!

And to follow my Buys and Sells and up to the minute insights, please follow and bookmark my Twitter feed here: http://Twitter.com/#!/SunAndStormInv

Copyright © 2012  By Wall Street Sun and Storm Report, LLC All rights reserved.

Warren Buffett’s diagnosis is not at all threatening over the short term of 5 years, or even over the next decade.  The survival rate of treated low stage prostate cancer is over 99% over the first 5 years.  Mr. Buffett has stage I (“stage one”) cancer, confined to the prostate.  Over 10 years, the National Cancer Institute says survival is 86%.  Others claim that number to be over 97%.  The 15 year survival rate may be greater than 90% according to some, although the NCI quotes it as 56%.  At 81 years of age, Warren Buffett is highly likely to live at least a decade, which should give him plenty of time to do many more of his big deals and transition to his new leadership that he has already chosen.  Given that, the stock is likely to hold up fine (BRKA, BRKB).  I continue to hold it from the market lows in August 2011.  I expect that this event will not of itself give rise to market timing sell signals.  The general market will likely have much more influence on the stock.

Here is an update for the chart on 4-24-2012 @ about 10:22 am a chart plotted with TC 2000 Software  (see my Other Resources)  page for details.

Market timing chart of BRKB on 4-24-2012 at 10:22 a.m. No big swoon in the stock post announcement.

What does his public statement say? 

“I feel great – as if I were in my normal excellent health – and my energy level is 100 percent. I discovered the cancer because my PSA level (an indicator my doctors had regularly checked for many years) recently jumped beyond its normal elevation and a biopsy seemed warranted.“

He feels great because prostate cancer is almost always asymptomatic unless it blocks urine flow, which is unusual, or if it has gone to bone, which can cause pain. 

We can tell from this statement that he is having some form of external beam radiation treatment.  That is clear because seed implants alone take just a day to place.   External beam radiation where radiation is directed at the prostate from the outside takes about 2 months, which fits his statement. 

Second, and this may be over-interpretation, he says his PSA went up from its “normal elevation.”  This could either be his quaint way of saying that it went up from “normal” for him, which it does in nearly all men with age to some degree OR it could mean that he had already had some “BPH” which is the non-scientific term for benign prostate enlargement (“benign prostatic hypertrophy” which is actually a benign hyperplasia more precisely where the prostate grows larger often obstructing urine flow on the basis of being chronically stimulated by male hormones).  In any case, his prostate specific antigen serum level went up higher and faster than it had before, so Mr. Buffett had a biopsy that showed he had prostate cancer, which stated as such is “adenocarcinoma” of the prostate.  Adenocarcinoma is derived from the glands of the prostate, not other components.  It is a very common cancer as you know.   Over 241,000 men will be diagnosed with prostatic adenocarcinoma this year alone.

So it’s a big club Mr. Buffett has joined.  Depending on a few critical parameters, his medical advisors have told him to be treated as opposed to just watching it.  Why he and they chose external beam treatment over radiation seed implants may have to do with the size of his prostate, the grade of the tumor (how “bad” the tumor looks under the microscope), his PSA level, and possibly with the volume of his disease (biopsies are done in 10 or more locations by many urologists and a map of the tumor can be guessed at and therefore the size of the tumor can be estimated).  Or it may have been his personal choice.

As an expert in urologic cancer (especially prostate and bladder) I can tell you and those you know to think about a few things prior to treatment and even before diagnosis:

1.  Have a “second look” done.  I do “second look consultations” because I’ve found that prostate cancers are both under and overdiagnosed. Why undergo treatment for something that is not there?   If a man is both diagnosed and treated at the same hospital, he may never learn of an inaccurate diagnosis.  Get a second opinion on the pathology.

2. It is now a controversy whether a man should be screened using the PSA blood test or not.  This is becoming a personal decision for men.   Warren Buffett said in his statement that his PSA had been followed for years.  That was his personal choice.

3. Depending on the patient’s age and how “bad” the tumor looks (the Gleason grade, which is the pattern seen under the microscope), and the stage of the tumor, for many men it is possible to “watch and wait.”  Some men may not want to wait and that is fine.

It may be that Mr. Buffett’s tumor was a “Gleason Score 7″ or higher (“higher grade” tumors give the tumor a high “Score”) or the tumor may have been large and that is why they have gone to external beam treatment as the initial approach vs. radiation seed implants (where small metallic radioactive “seeds” are placed within the prostate under radiologic guidance).

4. Be treated by someone who “does a lot of them.”  Whatever the procedure is, make sure your doctor has experience and that is true of both radiation oncologists and urologic surgeons.  The latter are getting out of practice these days in many areas of the country, because so few prostatectomies are done as compared to the numbers 10-15 years ago.  Surgeons  well trained in true nerve sparing prostatectomies that help prevent nerve damage that may result in both impotence and incontinence are even fewer in number. This may seem unfair to young doctors, but it’s your body and it is called “the practice of medicine” for a reason.

Please retweet this article to or share it with those you know.  If you or someone you know needs guidance on making these decisions and I can be of help, please let me know and I’d be happy to consult.  My contact information for “Second Look” consultations is here:

Second Look Prostate Cancer Consultations

Standard Disclaimer: Please realize that a patient’s individual clinical findings and his personal preferences need to be considered carefully to come to a decision about prostate cancer treatment.

I wish you the best if you are facing prostate cancer and of course wish Warren Buffett the best as well.

Copyright © 2012 By Wall Street Sun and Storm Report, LLC All rights reserved.

In fact, the SP500 is just barely below the 2011 high of 1370.58 on the close of get this – 1370.25.  Think the market responds to technical signals?  Commodities continue to weaken.  Copper is still making lower lows.  This would suggest that the economy is slowly weakening worldwide,and the markets know it.

Continue to follow the reactions to earnings.  The reaction to the bank earnings was admittedly a bad one.  The reaction to Alcoa was very positive.  And yet, the banks (BKX) did not break their 50 day moving average on the close despite the big downdraft on Friday.  China (FXI) was down a miniscule 0.08% following the “bad news” Friday that Chinese growth has moved down to 8.0% from 9.0% over the past few months.  The VIX did not make a new high.  Small caps should have broken down much more but did not as I also tweeted:

That means the sell-off need not find its next leg down immediately at least.  I favor a move back up at least to a slightly lower high for the SP500 Index followed by a potential second down leg.  Sentiment is getting more Bearish which of course is potentially Bullish although there is room for one more move down in sentiment before it starts to become extreme.  So yes, the Bears have their arguments, but the Bulls have a bit of an edge still.

If you have not seen them, have a look at the charts from this week as well.  They are listed on my “feed page” here:

Market Timing Chart Links Here

Enjoy your week!

Standard Disclaimer: Remember, it’s your money and your decision as to how to invest it.

Since then, the markets have indeed rallied.  There may not be much more upside until the next leg down resumes, but the market has surprised the Bears and has gone to Bullish extremes repeatedly.  The above is the text from the 4-15-2012  “Weekly Wall Street Sun and Storm Report™.  To see the current issue and this week’s ratings of all 35 markets I follow and receive the newsletter every weekend, subscribe here: 

www.sunandstorminvesting.com/subscribe-to-sp500tracker-newsletter-and-tips.html

By the way, if you “liked” this post, please “Like” it below at the “Share” arrow below and/or re-Tweet it.

Enjoy your week!

And to follow my Buys and Sells and up to the minute insights, please follow and bookmark my Twitter feed here: http://Twitter.com/#!/SunAndStormInv

Copyright © 2012  By Wall Street Sun and Storm Report, LLC All rights reserved.

The other weak market is Treasuries that have declared a down trend.  If the stock markets correct, will Treasuries benefit this time?  Or is the Treasury sell-off wagging the dog (the stock markets)?  (added 4-10-2012: apparently yes as we saw yesterday!)

Finally, small cap stocks and foreign markets are also pointing down at the moment. (added 4-10-2012: yes, kept falling yesterday)

Even the stronger markets are already showing signs of topping on a market timing basis.  My take is the same as last week.  The market is ready to pull back on less than spectacular earnings and/or forward expectations.  But is it true that the economy actually still slowing after GDP peaked in Dec. 2010?  Earnings season begins this week, so we’ll finally get the answer.

Have a look at the charts from this week as well. They are listed on my “feed page” here:

Market Timing Chart Links Here

Enjoy your week!

Standard Disclaimer: Remember, it’s your money and your decision as to how to invest it.

This is the text from the 4-8-2012  “Weekly Wall Street Sun and Storm Report™.  To see the current issue and this week’s ratings of all 35 markets I follow and receive the newsletter every weekend, subscribe here: 

www.sunandstorminvesting.com/subscribe-to-sp500tracker-newsletter-and-tips.html

By the way, if you “liked” this post, please “Like” it below at the “Share” arrow below and/or re-Tweet it.

Enjoy your week!

And to follow my Buys and Sells and up to the minute insights, please follow and bookmark my Twitter feed here: http://Twitter.com/#!/SunAndStormInv

Copyright © 2012  By Wall Street Sun and Storm Report, LLC All rights reserved.

The VIX has yet to break out to the downside or the upside.  So the SP500 Index continues to bump up against resistance appearing reluctant to sell off.  Watch as earnings season starts.  If disappointments are taken in stride, that would be positive.  If there are small misses or statements concerning future earnings that are mediocre, and the market responds badly, we are in for a correction in the stock market indices.

Munis may be a good buy here for three reasons: 1. The end of the Bush tax cuts will cause a lot of money to pile into munis if it happens.  2. There has been a bit of a pullback, so there is some room for a bounce. 3. If we are in for a stock market correction, Treasuries and munis will rally together.  I bought some munis on Friday.

Enjoy your week! 

Standard Disclaimer: Remember, it’s your money and your decision as to how to invest it.

You can get the whole current issue by signing up here at no charge: http://www.sunandstorminvesting.com/subscribe-to-sp50tracker-newsletter-and-tips.html

By the way, if you “liked” this post, please “Like” it below at the “Share” arrow below and/or re-Tweet it.

Enjoy your week! 

More at: http://www.SunAndStormInvesting.com/

And to follow my Buys and Sells and up to the minute insights, please follow and bookmark my Twitter feed here: http://Twitter.com/#!/SunAndStormInv

Standard Disclaimer: Remember, it’s your money and your decision as to how to invest it.

Copyright © 2012  By Wall Street Sun and Storm Report, LLC All rights reserved.

The volatility index (VIX) is now above the 2011 low and has been consolidating, NOT blasting off to the upside.  I believe breaking the 2011 low will indicate the next big rally if that happens.  Moving above the Feb. low will indicate a deeper correction for the SP500 Index and other stock markets for that matter.

On the positive side, the small caps are bouncing from support.  On the negative side, Treasuries are rallying again.  China is very weak and is flirting with some support.  If it breaks there, our markets may ease back further as well.

There is a feeling among many Bears that we are still going to have a significant rally into year end, but “boy oh boy, we really need a correction here” – more than we have had to date.  What could bring the correction would be failures in the earnings season about to hit the calendar.  As I’ve mentioned, there are those like the Economic Cycle Research Institute who feel the economy is going to go into a mild recession and it will get worse if oil/gas prices go sky high.

The other big issue is where money from individual investors goes from this point on.  Over the past year it has continued to LEAVE stocks and enter bonds, entering a bubble that Warren Buffett has warned against.  The assertion is that the next rally is going to be driven by a shift back from bonds to stocks.  This will NOT happen if bonds continue their recent rally.  Watch the Oct. low in bonds.  If that breaks, stocks will benefit as long as rates do not go sky high indicating high inflation levels.  A gentle rise of rates will likely be tolerated, but not a rapid, huge increase that would shut down the housing market.

Enjoy your week! 

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