The President is briefed every day, so investors and traders should be too!

The 7-12-2011 Market Timing Brief™ is here: Today’s Market Timing Brief™

1. ADP reported that private non-farm payrolls rose 157,000 in June with 130000 jobs added in services and 27,000 in manufacturing.  They said this was above estimates for this report and suggests estimates for Friday’s report are not high enough.  The stock market likes this (SPX, SPY) and the Bulls are happy.

The US dollar index also liked this (EUR/USD; UUP) initially and the gains faded away later in the day (UUP, the US dollar index ETF ended up down 0.19%).  Although these ADP numbers are not enough to reverse the unemployment trend, they are enough to slow the trend.  Still, we need upwards of 300,000 jobs a month to reverse unemployment due to the number of people added to the work force each month.

2. Gold and silver are both in good buying positions today after yesterday’s closes, although gold was down slightly near the open (silver (SLV) was up).  Silver (SLV) is above the down trend line on a daily chart and has retested the March low with positive divergence.  Gold (GLD, the gold ETF) made it through all three resistance points mentioned in the prior brief.  The gold miners (GDX) also showed new strength and have done their retest too.

 3.  The risk?  A number of indices are either rechallenging the prior highs, getting close, or in the case of the Dow Transports, making marginal new highs.  This rise has happened very fast and is subject to correction, even if the overall uptrend continues.

4.  Bonds have moved from a SELL to a HOLD.  The easy selling period is over.  The European risk issues are giving the bond market some support here.

5. REITs are essentially retesting their prior high.  This is not a good entry point.  Waiting for a new high would be a better strategy

 6. Foreign markets continue to lag the US market recovery except for the Pacific Rim, especially Japan that saw another breakout yesterday in its chart.  Things are getting less bad in Japan and ironically, the spending needed due to the massive destruction will ultimately help their economy as an unwelcome stimulus program.  The Japanese are known as big savers.  Their savings are now being spent.  Meanwhile, China is raising rates and did so another 0.25% yesterday, which will help them slow their inflation rate, but also their economic growth rate.

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Another fly in the ointment may be the VIX volatility index chart: The VIX Points to this SP500 Index Target

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