Market Timing Brief™: The Critical Signals to Watch

The Tells on this Market

Treasuries have rallied again and are testing the prior market timing consolidations in both the 10 year note and the 30 year bond.  The VIX (“fear index”) moved up in the downtrend.  The market is still fixated on the 30.16 VIX low I believe, so rising above there could trigger some selling.  It could prove a reversal point for the Bulls.  We won’t know until or if we get there.

Today’s SP500 Index close was just above support at around 1249.  The close was at 1253.30, so we are already nearby.  The banking index (BKX) is slightly below the August high.  If you see the BKX break down further with the VIX rising above the resistance level mentioned and Treasuries rallying through the prior consolidation, the SP500 will likely fall to support lower than 1249.05.  The other index to watch is the NDX (tech; QQQ). If it fails to regain its recent new high, again, the SP500 index will likely be selling off.

There is yet another “tell” on this market – the US dollar.  For this to be a small correction on the way to higher highs, Europe will have to improve its story.  Otherwise, the US dollar will continue to rise through the prior consolidation level through which it had fallen and move straight back up.  That market timing signal would mean serious damage to the Euro and all major global stock markets.

Of the pullbacks we’ve had to date, this one is perhaps the best place for the market to fail.  Why?  Because many have reversed from important resistance points.  I am not saying it must fail, but this is a place that could be  a pivot point depending on the flow of news.  Let’s hope Europe looks better on Tuesday than it did on Monday!

By the way, if you “liked” this post, I would greatly appreciate it if you would “Like” it below at the “Share” arrow below and/or re-Tweet it.

Standard Disclaimer: Remember, it’s your money and your decision as to how to invest it.

I posted an important Update on the Stock Market Here: This Weeks Video Chart Update

Been wondering about how investors are feeling?

Survey Says! (AAII Sentiment Survey that is!)

Follow my Twitter comments during the market day (link to right).

And for some fun with the latest Fed Statement: Fun with the Federal Reserve Statement

Copyright © 2011 by Wall Street Sun and Storm Report, LLC All rights reserved.

This entry was posted in Market timing, S&P 500 Index, trading, US Dollar Index and tagged , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.