A Market Timing Report based on the 9-27-2013 Close published Sunday September 29th, 2013
UPDATE on 10-07-2013: Go to the chart tab at the top of the page to see the most recent charts on the SP500 index, GLD, and interest rates (TNX).
UPDATE for 9-30-2013 @ 8:41 a.m.: With the looming shutdown, I now expect the SP500 Index to fall to the first support line at a minimum or to the second, but it could bounce between 1646-1653. Remember that if the shutdown of the US government is avoided, markets could immediately make back all the losses showing up in the futures this morning, so trading this could be very tricky. Selling quite a bit of our holdings earlier is putting us in a much better position today. Be sure to subscribe to the newsletter (see below) to have access to the private page where I often share some important details.
The SP500 Index is falling to support, but slowly. The 50 day moving average at the aqua line in the chart could provide initial support, but that looks a bit too easy. The up trend line denoted by the white line looks like a more likely place for the first bounce to occur. Futures are down as I type this to 1675.75, down 9 points per CNBC at 11:44 pm.
Interest rates are falling (see that chart which I’ll post with the gold chart most likely), but not for good reasons. They are falling because of the Fed’s insistence on continuing QE past where it is either needed and some argue has utility. Letting interest rates rise slowly and containing the upside a bit would work better in my opinion.
See the GLD gold ETF post as well, which will be published by the morning. NOTE: The date on the chart below is 9-27-2013.
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