A Market Timing Report based on the 1-17-2014 Close published Monday January 20th, 2014
The 10 Year Treasury yield attempted a rebound from support around the 50 day moving average and has since fallen back for another test. The close on Friday was below the 50 day moving average so the next support is 2.819% at the 1-13-2014 low. A breach there should be celebrated by the metals, housing, and REITs.
The market has been believing that the economy is recovering in which case rates should be RISING, not falling, unless they stay somewhat range bound at levels toward the upper end of the 2013 range. Remember that the Fed has powder it is still expending in buying Treasuries and mortgage backed securities to keep rates artificially low.
The interest rate chart for the 10 Year Treasury Note:
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