Market Timing Brief for the 10 Year Treasury Note Yield (TNX) Close on 1-31-2014: Rates Keep Falling

A Market Timing Report based on the 1-31-2014 Close published Sunday February 2nd, 2014

The 10 Year Treasury yield did in fact breach 2.819% at the 1-13-2014 low.  Housing and REITs did celebrate, but the metals did not, with both gold and silver slipping, the latter dissolving all gains, falling to recent support.  This is new and it’s not a great omen for the metals either.  With rates down, metals should be advancing.  Perhaps they still will, but at the moment, they are not and real estate is looking better.  Gold advanced with the US dollar (which did rally this week) when Europe was panicking.

Remember that stocks are depending on a continued flow of dollars out of bonds, which has been called “The Great Rotation.”  With bonds rallying again, that pressure is hardly there, another problem for stocks over the intermediate term (see the SP500 Index Chart; link to upper left).

The interest rate chart for the 10 Year U.S. Treasury Note:


Rates still falling.

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