A Market Timing Report based on the 2-021-2014 Close published Saturday February 23, 2014
And now we’ll see if it’s more than just a kiss of a top. The SP500 Index (SPX, SPY) did come very close to the prior high (not the even earlier all time high though) and it pulled back. Is that it? No one can tell you and everyone can guess. Instead of guessing, we learn from the market. In the past, as I detail on the private access page (get the password below), damage such as we’ve seen recently is not often followed by new highs. So maybe that is a bit of guessing after all. ; ) The difference is, we’re willing to take action only based on the market’s behavior. And we’re willing to admit we’re wrong and get back in if we sell or get back out if we buy.
A new high is possible if the “Great Rotation” from bonds to stocks continues, but I’d favor that we won’t go higher than the January high of 1850.84. We stopped at 1847.50 on Weds. and tested that high and failed on Friday. Going to a new high would just make the subsequent sell-off that much more nerve-wracking for investors on a percentage basis.
Please read my investor sentiment work from Thursday if you haven’t. It gives you my trading strategy. You can access those thoughts after getting the password here: Free Subscription to My Newsletter and access to my latest comments I’ll send you back the password to the access page and the monthly newsletter in the same email.
Here’s the SP500 Index Chart: (Note that the 50 day moving average is buried under the second red line from the top as they converge.)
NOTE: The Gold and 10 Year Treasury Market Charts have been posted. See the link to the upper right. Thanks.
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Look for updates on the main chart tracking pages this week as I feel they are needed and comments via Twitter.
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