A Market Timing Report based on the 3-28-2014 Close published Saturday March 30, 2014

The SP500 Index (SPX, SPY) failed again to break out this past week.
Eventually an index must make a new high or it will tend to descend to the next new low.  First, let’s look at the chart.

Here’s the SP500 Index Chart (click to enlarge):

SP500 Index has not been able to break out.

As discussed last week (see link to upper right), the SPX has been positively correlated with the yield on the 10 Year Treasury Index.  Rates down, market down.  A healthy economy is supposed to result in higher rates, because the Fed can stop printing fake money.  When the economy is suspect, rates fall in anticipation of more Fed action or slower QE or a Fed funds rate of near zero out into the distant lala-land of a future they are building for us.

Note that there is NO sell signal on the index in my opinion, unless you’ve been shorting every attempt near the top and buying the lows.  But considering the sentiment analysis I did this past Thursday, I now favor a further downturn. 

How low?  Mildly to moderately, but it’s best to read it.  You can access the work as well as my exposure levels to each index after getting the password here: Free Subscription to My Newsletter and access to my latest comments  I’ll send you back the password to the access page and the monthly newsletter in the same email.

Standard Disclaimer: It’s your money and your decision as to how to invest it.

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I thank Worden Brothers for the chart system I use to post these charts.  If you want to know more about the charting system I use every day, go to my “Other Resources” page here:  Other Resources   It makes it much easier to follow along with me if you can see the charts and manipulate them on your own computer, so it’s a great investment to have an excellent charting system.

Look for updates this week as needed via Twitter.

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