A Market Timing Report based on the 3-28-2014 Close published Saturday March 30, 2014
The SP500 Index (SPX, SPY) failed again to break out this past week.
Eventually an index must make a new high or it will tend to descend to the next new low. First, let’s look at the chart.
Here’s the SP500 Index Chart (click to enlarge):
As discussed last week (see link to upper right), the SPX has been positively correlated with the yield on the 10 Year Treasury Index. Rates down, market down. A healthy economy is supposed to result in higher rates, because the Fed can stop printing fake money. When the economy is suspect, rates fall in anticipation of more Fed action or slower QE or a Fed funds rate of near zero out into the distant lala-land of a future they are building for us.
Note that there is NO sell signal on the index in my opinion, unless you’ve been shorting every attempt near the top and buying the lows. But considering the sentiment analysis I did this past Thursday, I now favor a further downturn.
How low? Mildly to moderately, but it’s best to read it. You can access the work as well as my exposure levels to each index after getting the password here: Free Subscription to My Newsletter and access to my latest comments I’ll send you back the password to the access page and the monthly newsletter in the same email.
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Look for updates this week as needed via Twitter.
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