Market Timing Brief for the Gold ETF (GLD) and 10 Year Treasury Yield (TNX) Closes On 4-11-2014: Gold Has Formed a Higher Low (Bullish!). But Rates May Have Bottomed.

A Market Timing Report based on the 4-11-2014 Close published Sunday April 13, 2014

Gold has successfully formed a higher low, so the rally is on for now.  Due to the fact that the 10 Year Treasury Note yield is near the bottom of its recent range (see chart below), gold may now face a head wind (rising rates and a stronger US dollar).  What would help gold is if the world started to buy more gold in a panic scenario in which the dollar would rally, driving down Treasury yields and driving up the price of gold as well as silver.  There may be some of that buying happening already.  It’s certainly been a good trade for 2014 whatever the cause(s).

Economic growth was supposed to gradually drive up rates according to the Fed and thereby strengthen the U.S. dollar as higher rates attract money into the currency.  But instead the dollar has fallen as rates have fallen and economic growth appears to be slowing adding further to deflationary pressure, which is good for gold, silver, other precious metals, and commodities.  We are in all those trades for now with more in gold and commodities than in silver, which has been acting poorly.  To keep up with my latest strategy on gold and interest rates on my private access page, you’ll need the password, which you can get here at no charge (there is MUCH more on that page on all 18 major indices I follow with percent allocations given for our model portfolio): Free Subscription to My Newsletter and WSSSR Access Page

GLD chart:


Gold has formed a higher low.

Ten Year Treasury Note Yield Chart (TNX, TLT, TBT):


The 10 Year Treasury Yield is at the low end of the recent range.

Standard Disclaimer: It’s your money and your decision as to how to invest it.

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I thank Worden Brothers for the chart system I use to post these charts.  If you want to know more about the charting system I use every day, go to my “Other Resources” page here:  Other Resources   It makes it much easier to follow along with me if you can see the charts and manipulate them on your own computer, so it’s a great investment to have an excellent charting system.

Look for updates on the main chart tracking pages this week as I feel they are needed and comments via Twitter @SunAndStormInv (see link to upper right).

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