Market Timing Brief for 11-09-2012: Post-Election Turmoil. Gold Up! Stocks Down! P.S. Watch Out “Rich Folks”!

Posted on November 12, 2012 by David Durand

A Market Timing Report based on the 11-09-2012 Close published Sunday November 11th, 2012

UPDATE 11-15-2012 @ 11:00 am: The SP500 Index must stop falling right at this new low established yesterday, or it will likely head to the June 2012 low as the next target.  In this last move, there was a consolidation without a bounce, which does not unequivocally predict a repeat of that, but it does raise the risk.   When markets drop, go sideways and drop rather than bounce in between, it means sentiment has become more negative.

What about sentiment?  The Bull-Bear spread has finally dropped to -20.0% which is bad enough to allow for a bounce in the market.  BUT, the probability of at least a retest of some kind of the current low is very likely given the degree of damage that has been done as well as the degree of uncertainty on the political landscape. 

If you buy to trade a bounce (realizing we could certainly have 1-2 more jerks down in the market without any bounce – so you’ll need a stop if you buy here), you may have to exit at overhead resistance or risk giving it all back. 

What about Gold (GLD)? Gold has weakened today placing our trade at risk.  It has the chance to form a reverse head and shoulders and bounce from around 164.50.  It has moved up from that area today, but may retest it soon.  When stocks sell off dramatically, gold often moves down too, as valuation is relative. 

Gold also has had a stronger US dollar fighting it, so a dollar reversal would help a lot.  It is not likely however in the midst of a stock market fall, because money moves to safety and the US dollar benefits.  So the gold trade is now a crap shoot short term.  Longer term, Bernanke’s easy money should support gold for some time to come unless interest rates spike dramatically for US debt.

Now for my weekend report…

The markets are in turmoil following the US Presidential election.  Pres. Obama reads the results as a mandate for taxing the rich.  He’ll have to compromise of course, but the rich are going to have to pay for this election loss by Romney, that much is clear.  Warren Buffett has won!  He finally can pay more taxes.  Others had suggested he simply directly donate to the federal government.  Did you know some people do that in their wills?  Perhaps the dividend tax breaks will go bye-bye for them for example.  And for that reason, not to mention the storm damage, utilities got clocked this past week.  Other dividend paying stocks will no longer provide the benefits they once did for the wealthy, if President Obama has his way, so the wealthy will redistribute their wealth accordingly.  We could see big losses still in utility stocks (UTY,XLU). 

For my friends in NYC, I would like to agree that $250K in NYC ain’t 250K in OKC!  They really need to adjust things further to be fair.  But, oh well, who said it was going to be fair!

Presumably the impression that Obama is angry with the rich is a distortion of the fact that he is angry toward Republicans for not passing all of his programs.  If he were angry toward the rich, he’d have to yell at himself in the mirror, since he himself admits that he is among the 1% “rich folks.”  Let’s all get along and solve the problems of this great nation, OK people?  Can we pretend that parties don’t matter for at least long enough to avoid veering off the fiscal cliff?  We may be headed off a cliff but at least we don’t have to hear political ads playing in the background!  lol

Read the blurb on my blog from last week (11-02-2012) if you want to know how the four market signals worked out on Tuesday.  It turned out that the behavior of the markets on the day of the election predicted an Obama win.  Among the weakest markets was the small cap index as shown:

The Russell 2000 Index (RUT,IWM): http://www.sunandstorminvesting.com/

Major support has been broken and there is much more damage possible.  Fortunately, the SP500 Index may provide the leadership that the small caps need.  As I pointed out at the link above, markets don’t all fall to the same technical positions on a big decline like this.  Some go much lower than others in terms of key targets/support levels.

The SP500 Index (SPX,SPY) is attempting to find support, ALTHOUGH it is just below, not above that support on the close Friday.

http://www.sunandstorminvesting.com/sp500-index-sp500tracker.html

The Tech sector is even worse in terms of the lost gains.  Apple stock itself is in its own Bear market (AAPL). 

Regardless, if the lows of the past few days are held, we have a chance for a bounce from here.  That is why selling everything at this point makes little sense.  If the market breaks down further, the next SP 500 Index target to the downside is indicated on the chart at the above link.

My prediction for the gold correction proved correct.  Because a Romney win was possible up until Election Day, gold (GLD) could not rally.  But on Election Day, the market seemed to know that “Bernanke is safe” and so is completely loose monetary policy, so gold had a hefty rally.   Prior to this, gold did indeed fall to around the 200 day moving average, before bouncing as shown:

http://www.sunandstorminvesting.com/gld-etf-gold-market-timing.html

Where is individual investor sentiment this week?  The AAII says that the Bulls were up further from 35.74% to 38.50% and the Bears are down to 39.91% from 41.01% and the spread is now only -1.4% vs. -5.1% last week.  Once again, this is even less helpful to the Bulls.  The situation is that the market is falling and sentiment has not bottomed, which means there is risk that the SP500 Index bounce that I am expecting may not pan out.  I predicted this week’s downside action based on last week’s sentiment.  I’d say we’re still in a danger zone as far as sentiment is concerned.  Don’t bet the farm as they say.

Thanks again for reading this week (get the full newsletter at the link below) and for making this the number one ranked free market timing newsletter in the world.

Standard Disclaimer: It’s your money and your decision as to how to invest it.

The above is the text from this week’s free report.  To receive future reports ahead of publication AND much more market timing information, please subscribe for free here:

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Copyright © 2012  By Wall Street Sun and Storm Report, LLC All rights reserved.

Posted in gold, gold etf, investment, investor sentiment, Market timing, S&P 500 Index, small cap stocks, trading, US Dollar Index, US Stocks, utilities, utility stocks, Warren Buffett | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Market Timing Brief for 11-02-2012: These Four Markets Will Predict the Election!

Posted on November 5, 2012 by David Durand

A Market Timing Report based on the 11-02-2012 Close published Sunday November 4th, 2012

UPDATE 11-06-2012: So what did the four Election Indices say today?

GLD (gold ETF): strongly to Obama (based on reaction today)

OIL: strongly to  Obama (based on reaction today)

BKX (banking stocks): Marginally to Romney

DRG (drug stocks): Marginally to Romney

I’d say the net result is an Obama win based on the above 4 markets.  I was also impressed by the pop in the SP500 Index today but it stopped just below the 50 day moving average.  I suspect it will move higher on an Obama win and lower with a Romney win at least as an initial reaction.  Why? Because Romney is more “pro-US dollar.”  Loose money inflates stocks.  Gold and silver will rally hard if Obama wins and sell off if Romney does for just that reason.

The Small Caps pretty much summed up the stock markets this week with the failing of the breakout that was attempted on Thursday.  We went right up to resistance of the 50 day moving average and “kissed it,” and then failed.  That is a typical retracement in a declining market and throws off both Bulls and Bears as shown in this week’s bonus chart.

The Russell 2000 Index (RUT,IWM): http://www.sunandstorminvesting.com/

My SP500 Index (SPX,SPY) target of 1396.56 is now in play again.  We are right back in the consolidation (sideways move) we left off with last week.  On Wednesday, the market stood at about pre-Sandy levels and jumped up on Thursday based on marginally better employment news.  That’s what the headlines may have said, but maybe it was the election tilting a bit toward Pres. Obama.  The real truth was perhaps that it jumped up for no good reason as the next day it gave it all back as the chart shows:

http://www.sunandstorminvesting.com/sp500-index-sp500tracker.html

In the meantime, gold (GLD) looked like it had support, but even slight improvement in the new jobs number sent it down through support on Friday.  The thought is that the Fed will be sidelined as the economy improves, so gold sold off and broke the daily up trend line that it had previously established.  It also broke the daily up trend line that has been in place since the summer. Ouch!  Fortunately we only have a 25% trading position on at the moment.  Longer term I believe gold has more room to run.

But for now, gold could now fall to the 200 day moving average before reversing as shown: http://www.sunandstorminvesting.com/gld-etf-gold-market-timing.html

It is a bit stretched to the downside due to Friday’s move and may bounce back to retest the up trend line and then turn down again.  Is it really believable that the economy is recovering in a sustainable way?  Will it all work out if Pres. Obama is re-elected and the House stays Republican?  Do you think they’ll be happy to help him after the election?  The point is that the future is uncertain regardless of the political party elected.  The fiscal cliff could get scarier if Pres. Obama wins.  The possibility of too much fiscal constraint may be an issue if Romney is elected, although the tax cuts he has planned may take care of that.  Remember that Reagan did not keep his promise to balance the budget.  Romney is unlikely to do that either despite his intention to do so.

Where is individual investor sentiment this week according to AAII?  The Survey Says the Bulls are up from 29.25% at 35.74%, Bears are down to 41.01% from 43.08% and the spread is now only -5.1% vs. -13.8%.  This is not helpful to the Bulls, because sentiment never got low enough to allow for a turn from a washed out market.  The fact that the market pulled back on Friday, quickly giving up big gains from the prior day shows that there is still work to be done on the downside, at least to the base of the recent consolidation.

Without indicating whom I favor, I’d say my drug stock index (DRG) Election Signal is flashing a warning on Pres. Obama’s re-election (Biotech (BTK) is taking it on the chin as well by the way).  The index just fell into a Bear 2 status, which may be significant occurring right before the election.  The polls are too close to call, so I’ll give tomorrow’s close the nod.  If the signal changes back by Tuesday to a Bull 3, it’s Obama.  If it stays a Bear 2 or worse, Romney is going to give the pharmaceutical industry a shock on Tuesday.  The Oil Signal (XOIL) is also flashing a possible Romney win.  Oil has been dropping steadily since September.  Remember that Romney will drill drill drill and kill kill kill the Saudi economy and oil prices in the process.  The Treasury market also favors Romney with its Bear 3 signal for both the 10 Year Note (TNX) and the 30 year bond (TYX), but it could shift back to Obama bullish by Election Day.  The Banking Signal (BKX,XLF) is also flashing Romney at the moment.  The banks are hoping for a repeal of Dodd-Frank.  So in summary, at the moment and this could change by Election Day, four critical markets favor a Romney win on Tuesday.  If this changes by Tuesday’s close, I’ll let you know at the top of this blog as an update.

Meanwhile most polls give President Obama the edge.

Vote according to your own heart on this one!

Have a great week!

Standard Disclaimer: It’s your money and your decision as to how to invest it.

The above is the text from this week’s free report.  To receive future reports ahead of publication AND much more market timing information, please subscribe for free here:

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Copyright © 2012  By Wall Street Sun and Storm Report, LLC All rights reserved.

Posted in Biotech, gold, gold etf, investment, investor sentiment, Market timing, pharmaceutical stocks, S&P 500 Index, trading, US Dollar Index, volatility index, Warren Buffett | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Market Timing Brief for 10-26-2012: Support Must Hold or the Market Will Be Spooked!

Posted on October 30, 2012 by David Durand

A Market Timing Report based on the 10-26-2012 Close published Sunday October 28th, 2012

UPDATE: Sunday, 11-04-201  There are four markets that will likely predict the election’s outcome on Tuesday.  Find out more by getting the Weekly report via the subscription link below!  The four markets I mention will throw fits come Weds. morning.

The small cap stock (RUT,IWM) rally that began in June has lost its luster.   There has already been a big take back of the prior gains and the index is now teetering on tenuous support consisting of a four day consolidation.

The Russell 2000 Index (scroll down to chart): http://www.sunandstorminvesting.com/

My SP500 Index (SPX,SPY) target of 1396.56 will be reached if the current consolidation (sideways move) fails on the chart:

http://www.sunandstorminvesting.com/sp500-index-sp500tracker.html

Look where the Bull markets are still hanging on this week (some by a thread, sitting right on critical support; see the MTT table below): Foreign markets (previously bashed down), drugs (DRG) and utilities (UTX) (both do well in a sluggish economy), gold miners (HUI, GDX, with gold now in a Bear correction, so gold must hold right here), and bonds (America’s favorite investment for years despite Warren Buffett declaring bonds a horrible investment at these levels – Warren does tend to be early with his insights).

Gold (GLD) has support at a nearby up trend line on the daily chart and at a nearby moving average as shown: http://www.sunandstorminvesting.com/gld-etf-gold-market-timing.html

The fact that the US dollar index has been having so much trouble mounting a break out is good news for gold Bulls.  The downside is limited unless the US dollar gets moving again to the upside.

The uncertainty of the fiscal cliff coming in January whereby massive government cuts will be imposed if Congress decides to take no action is weighing on many companies.  They realize that such inaction would be a disaster for the economy.  We would undoubtedly go back into recession.  The Presidential election is too close to call, with current polls currently leaning slightly toward Romney.  Drug stocks have still been holding up reasonably well, so Romney is likely not yet in the clear.

Notice your gas prices easing back a bit this past week?  Is that a coincidence or would the oil cartel be much better off with President Obama in office questioning the safety of fracking for oil and gas in the U.S., while overemphasizing technologies that won’t help bring down energy prices for many years.  Did you know that it is impossible to efficiently produce energy via solar power except for local production at a building or house?  As for fracking, there is true concern if it’s done near your house!  A home owner near a fracking site on 60 minutes showed how he could actually LIGHT his water on fire!  The gas rose to the top and exploded when lit!  The concrete walls they build to protect the water supply don’t always work.  Romney says he’ll let the drillers run wild and make the U.S. a big energy producer.

Watch for banking to do well if Romney wins on Nov. 6th.  Romney has planned to roll back some of the Dodd-Frank legislation governing the banks.  Anything that makes their operations cheaper goes right to the bottom line.  Both sides are OK with you and me getting less than 0.8% on our deposits, while the money goes into the banks’ pockets.

Where is investor sentiment this week per AAII?  Bulls are 29.25%, Bears are 43.08% and the spread is -13.8%.  That is barely changed from the  -15.9% Bull – Bear Spread last week.  We are looking for a spread of -22.4% to -30% to define a bottom.  So despite the current daily chart support in numerous indices, there is still room to the downside.   The 50 day moving average did not support the market this past week and the current consolidations may fail as well.  If you buy anything at these support levels, use a stop and hold some powder on the side in case prices improve.

Standard Disclaimer: It’s your money and your decision as to how to invest it.

The above is the text from this week’s free report.  To receive future reports ahead of publication AND much more market timing information, please subscribe for free here:

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Copyright © 2012  By Wall Street Sun and Storm Report, LLC All rights reserved.

Posted in gold, gold etf, investment, investor sentiment, Market timing, mining stocks, pharmaceutical stocks, S&P 500 Index, trading, US Dollar Index, volatility index, Warren Buffett | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Market Timing Brief for 10-19-2012: The Correction Will Likely Deepen

Posted on October 23, 2012 by David Durand

A Market Timing Report based on the 10-19-2012 Close published Monday October 22nd, 2012

UPDATED SP500 Index Chart as of 12:58 pm ET 10-25-2012:

sp500-index-market-timing-chart-2012-10-25-1256pm

SP500 Index in Danger of Breaking Support

The Ten Year Treasure Note (TNX,TLT) is rallying again as of Friday from about the same position it had back in both August and September.  This could mean further bad news for stocks.  I looked critically over the intermediate term as the next link shows and found that Treasuries have been basically going sideways while the stock market has inched up.  If Treasuries rally hard, I would expect stocks to be correcting further.  Corporate bonds have been holding up well in the face of uncertainty.

The 10 Year Treasury Note chart: http://www.sunandstorminvesting.com/

The horrible performance of such key stocks as Apple (AAPL), IBM, Google (GOOG), Intel (INTC, and McDonald’s (MCD) over the past couple of weeks is certainly bad news to the Bulls who predicted that these multinationals would escape the slowdown occurring around the world.  That has not been the case.

Of course China slowed from its previously torrid growth rate, but is showing some recent responsiveness to government policy changes meant to stimulate the economy.  For this reason the emerging markets have done better on a relative basis than their U.S. counterparts.  This is a theme that you can likely profit from in the coming months.  If I had to do a Jan. 1 prediction that began today, it would be to consider increasing exposure to emerging markets (using a stop loss point as always).

The SP500 Index (SPX, SPY) is correcting off of a top and is barely below the 50 day moving average this week (even after the 10-22 close), but there is some nearby support as shown:

http://www.sunandstorminvesting.com/sp500-index-sp500tracker.html

I give you my “first target” for the SP500 at the above link.

When growth slows, there is often a bias toward value stocks and that is showing up in the index performances this week. 

The VIX volatility index shot up on Friday.  It stopped just quite shy of the late August high.  There is still plenty of room for it to rise, which means a further stock correction is very possible.

The US dollar index looks ready to rally.  Near month futures have held a higher low and the tone is UP.  Metals are under pressure with gold dropping through some nearby support and falling to 50 day moving average support as shown in this week’s chart:

The GLD Gold ETF Chart: http://www.sunandstorminvesting.com/gld-etf-gold-market-timing.html

The drug stock group is still doing very well, despite the impression that Gov. Romney is gaining on President Obama.  As I’ve said, this predicts an Obama victory, so the Republicans have their work cut out for them still.  (NOTE: after close Tuesday – Romney has pulled ahead in the polls and drug stocks are now selling off)

AAII Investor Sentiment is of use to us again this week!  Bulls are 28.66%, Bears 44.55% and the spread is therefore -15.9% per the AAII data.  That is enough for a temporary low, which means the area of the 50 day moving average could hold for the SP500 Index, but there it is not a wash-out bottom.  For that the spread is too low.   A spread of -22.4% marked the low this past May.

All in all, the data suggest a further stock market correction, perhaps after a short bounce or sideways move.  The Fed has created upward pressure in the stock markets by driving interest rates to abnormally low levels.  This is why the correction we’ve had has been slow and not enough to satisfy the Bears.  If the fiscal cliff is averted, the Bulls will have a big run ahead of them.   So our ability to invest rationally is GONE, because our government is interfering in the markets in such a massive way.  Other than buying deep value as Buffett does, the direction of the market as seen in the charts is one of the only clues we have!

Standard Disclaimer: It’s your money and your decision as to how to invest it.

The above is the text from this week’s free report.  To receive future reports ahead of publication AND much more market timing information, please subscribe for free here:

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Copyright © 2012  By Wall Street Sun and Storm Report, LLC All rights reserved.

Posted in federal reserve, gold, gold etf, investment, investor sentiment, Market timing, S&P 500 Index, trading, US Dollar Index, volatility index, Warren Buffett | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Market Timing Brief for 10-12-2012: : October is Correction Month and Sentiment Has Room to Fall for U.S.

Posted on October 15, 2012 by David Durand

A Market Timing Report based on the 10-12-2012 Close published Sunday October 14th, 2012

UPDATE 10-15-2012: The market did in fact bounce from support, but not quite enough to say it will again retop or rally further.  Gold broke down today as expected.

The Weekly Wall Street Sun and Storm Report™

The school papers (earnings) are being turned in and the results are not so good.  This is driving stocks down, although both the SP500 and gold are on key support and may choose to pivot either way.  The very short run ups and downs are notoriously hard to call.  The small caps may be hinting the damage about to extend to the large caps in a bigger way.  And to gold and silver as well.  First review the key markets by having a look at the charts.

Small Caps are leading the market down as explained and shown here:

Small Cap Stock Index (Russell 2000 Index, RUT, IWM): The Bonus Chart of the Week: http://www.sunandstorminvesting.com/index.html

The SP500 Index is doing a bit better and is barely above an important support level shown in this week’s chart.

Here’s the SP500 Index Chart:

http://www.sunandstorminvesting.com/sp500-index-sp500tracker.html

The key question is whether this is just going to be a mild correction of 7-10% or even less, prior to a year end rally or much more.  I’ve even heard normally bearish commentators talk about a year end rally off of SP500 support of 1420.  Well, if they are right, the correction is nearly over, not just beginning.

The other negative sign is that tech is failing.  The NASDAQ 100, the largest 100 tech stocks (NDX, QQQ) are in the middle of a fall now.  Support for the NDX is around 2660.

Hamm funny, it’s not just the SP500 Index, but also the GLD gold ETF that is on a thread of support, near zero support sitting precisely on a key support level as shown: 

The GLD Gold ETF Chart is shown here: http://www.sunandstorminvesting.com/gld-etf-gold-market-timing.html

The Dollar is back just under where it was in 1995 prior to the Clinton-Gingrich Rally.  This rally was based on the eventual balancing of the budget, which Gingrich did with Clinton where Reagan was embarrassingly a failure despite the revisions of history by many.  Speaker Tip O’Neal was a co-culprit in the creation of the first massive federal deficit in our nation’s history.

Read my article from a while back on the “Invention of Fiscal Lying” if you want to know more.  It is an independent view of incompetence on both sides of the aisle.  You can find the article by “Googling” “invention of fiscal lying.”  It is the top article for that search.

Finally!  AAII Survey of Investor Sentiment is of use to us this week!  How bad it may get is discussed here: http://www.sunandstorminvesting.com/aaii-survey-review-investor-sentiment.html

Health care stocks are still handicapping Pres. Obama as the winner.  I mentioned this “tell” on the election weeks ago.  Let’s see what happens after Tuesday’s second Presidential election debate.

The Golden Bull of the week is China, which had a big increase in exports, much more than the market had expected.  The Chinese market (FXI) has outperformed the SP500 the past couple of days and is breaking OUT while our market is showing weakness.  Remember that China has underperformed our market for some time, namely, since March 2012.  Catch up time?  Only if our markets find support soon.  Otherwise the Chinese gains will vanish.  I believe money is starting to shift back to the Chinese stock market relative to the US market and the performance difference will close.

Have a great week!

Standard Disclaimer: It’s your money and your decision as to how to invest it.

The above is the text from this week’s free report.  To receive future reports ahead of publication with much more market timing information, please subscribe for free here:

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Copyright © 2012  By Wall Street Sun and Storm Report, LLC All rights reserved.

Posted in federal reserve, gold, gold etf, investment, investor sentiment, Market timing, S&P 500 Index, small cap stocks, trading, US Dollar Index | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Market Timing Brief for 10-05-2012: Earnings in the Wings

Posted on October 8, 2012 by David Durand

A Market Timing Report based on the 10-05-2012 Close published Sunday October 7th, 2012

The Weekly Wall Street Sun and Storm Report™

SP500 Index Chart Update on 10-10-2012 after the close:

sp500-index-market-timing-chart-2012-10-10-close

The SP500 Index is now sitting on some support. If it breaks below the white horizontal line, it could fall to 1397 before it finds support. The top red line, the April 2012 high is also a possible bounce point

The 10 Year Treasury Note sold off badly on Friday with the employment report.  The Fed won’t have to buy as many US Treasuries or mortgage backed securities if the economy is on the mend.  Earnings start coming out in earnest next week, so that should provide guidance for the 4th quarter.  Watch the initial reaction to earnings disappointments.  The trend often continues.  If there is a bad reaction to soft earnings for several companies, it will tend to repeat throughout the earnings cycle.  If companies look forward to the next quarter being strong, then you’ll see a pattern of reactions that fit that scenario.

Jack Welch, former CEO of GE, made the news by raising an eyebrow about the sudden drop in unemployment in the face of absent to flagging growth in the economy.  He deals with a lot of corporate bigwigs and they have all been telling him that this quarter was soft.  What he did not mention is that small to mid sized companies are the ones that have been hiring new workers.  Manufacturing is off but service jobs are up.  The truth is that the real unemployment rate is likely around 14% when you include those who have dropped out of the work force, so the government can make the numbers whatever they want.  We all know there are not enough jobs out there for those who would like to work.

The entire market is reflected by the bonus chart this week.  Small caps managed to pull up and out of their misery and rally enough to see an inflection point (barely) in the chart.  It was enough for me to do some buying as you saw on Twitter.

Small Cap Stock Index (Russell 2000 Index, RUT, IWM): The Bonus Chart of the Week: Bonus Chart of the Week

The SP500 Index has essentially re-topped as I discuss here:

Here’s the SP500 Index Chart: SP500Tracker ™

Remember that the market is strong recently for one major reason – free money from all of the world’s central banks.  The last two pops in the SP500 Index (SPX, SPY) in the upward direction were due to first, the European Central Bank and secondly, the Federal Reserve.  They are goosing the market.  The results have been uneven at times, especially when our Fed seemed to be slacking off on the free money program, but the trend has been up despite the corrections, since the March 2009 bottom in our markets.

The corrections of the past 3 summers have formed higher lows.  This year’s market is even stronger as we’ve already recovered from the summer low and have made new highs.  The blind optimists will point out how close we are to the 2007 highs.  That was 5 years of a few percent dividends and that is about it.  Oops..and that is not to mention the fact that we saw that same 2007 high seven years earlier in 2000, so it’s been 12 years of not much for the SP500 Index.  Clearly the worst thing you can do is to sell at bottoms and not get back into the market after seeing that you were wrong.  The better thing to do is to preserve profits after long runs up in the markets and to not expect the market to manage your money for you.

The VIX volatility index has the opportunity to break the August and September lows and head toward the 2006-2007 VIX lows.  That is the Bullish opportunity.  Last week it did bounce off those lows and so there is room for more of a rise from here with a fall in the market.  The market has risen for 3 of the four days that the VIX has been falling.  The key Friday was that the VIX hit support and bounced, but so far the market was down only fractionally.

Sentiment still supports the Bulls over the Bears as discussed here:
AAII Survey: Survey Says!

This week sentiment barely budged, so my conclusions at the above link remain unchanged.

The near month US dollar index (UUP, USDX) futures broke down and as a result, the gold ETF (GLD) nearly broke out to a new high – but not quite.   The dollar index just changed its long term signal to negative, so gold and silver will likely have some help.

The overhead resistance still faced by GLD Gold ETF Chart is shown here: GLDTracker™

Have a great week!  Stay alert as it is October!

Standard Disclaimer: It’s your money and your decision as to how to invest it.

The above is the text from this week’s free report.  To receive future reports ahead of publication with much more market timing information, please subscribe for free here:

Free Subscription to My Weekly Newsletter

By the way, if you “liked” this post, please “Like” it at the “Share” arrow below and/or re-Tweet it below.

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Copyright © 2012  By Wall Street Sun and Storm Report, LLC All rights reserved.

Posted in federal reserve, gold, gold etf, investment, investor sentiment, Market timing, S&P 500 Index, small cap stocks, trading, US Dollar Index, volatility index | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Market Timing Brief for 09-28-2012: Newsflash: The Correction Has Started

Posted on October 2, 2012 by David Durand

A Market Timing Report based on the 9-28-2012 Close published Sunday Sept. 30th, 2012

The Weekly Wall Street Sun and Storm Report™

UPDATE for 10-04-2012 @ 9:55 pm: The SP500 Index has found support after a brief and shallow correction.  It has the ability to at least retop as the chart shows below. 

There is a lot of skepticism about this rally as sentiment revealed this week  (Google AAII Survey and my post on it should be about 4th from the top at sunandstorminvesting.com.  It is the top ranked independent review of AAII sentiment on Google. )   My analysis is the same for this weeks’ data out at midnight CT on Weds.  The Bull-Bear spread is only +0.6%, because Bears went down and Bulls went down too.

Note that the small caps must rejoin the rally with greater strength and the SP500 Index must break out again to keep this Bull running.  Otherwise we simply retop or come close to it and fall after earnings start disappointing the market next week.  That is what the Bears would say. 

Check out the steady progress of the SP500 Index on the chart below as it climbs further above the April 2012 high:

sp500-index-market-timing-chart-2012-10-04-close

The SP500 Index looks ready to re-challenge the last high.

NOW for my comments from this past Sunday, when things were a bit bleaker!

You don’t see that sort of line in the news.  But keep reading and you’ll see the market timing evidence.  Not all the stars are aligned yet with a big sell-off, but they are starting to stack up.  For one, the NASDAQ and other important indices have broken down as explained later.

The 10 Year Treasury Note (TNX) has hit the same spot it reached at the end of August, just under the 50 day moving average.  If it continues down in yield from here, stocks will be selling off some more, so it’s worth following.

10 Year Treasury Note: The Bonus Chart of the Week: http://www.sunandstorminvesting.com/index.html

The SP500 Index (SPX, SPY) has been correcting for the past four days nearly wiping out all the the Bernanke pop after the QE3 announcement.  I doubt the correction is over.  The 50 day moving average looks like the closest target, which will soon coincide with the April 2012 high.  The next target would be the 9-04-2012 low.

Here’s the SP500 Index Chart:

http://www.sunandstorminvesting.com/sp500-index-sp500tracker.html

The VIX volatility index (VIX, VXX) has held a low and is now back above the 5 day moving average, able to move up easily now with the market correcting further.

The Dow (DJI, DIA) dropped to within 29 points of the May 2012 high, but will likely test lower than that.  The Dow Transports (DJI, IYT) breached both the July and August lows will likely attack the June low next.  The banking index (BKX, XLF) has broken down below the last breakout but could simply correct back to its 50 day moving average or slightly lower and continue the up trend.  Big tech (NDX, QQQ) is testing the April 2012 high as well, so there are multiple indices that are flirting with major breakdowns that could lead to at least a very significant correction.  The NASDAQ is in fact below its March 2012 high.   There is a significant banking component in the NASDAQ which is likely the culprit.  The midcaps (MID, MDY) and small caps (IWM, IWO, IWN, RUT, RUO, RUJ) have broken down below their prior 2012 highs.  Newsflash: We are in a correction now.

How low we go depends on many things, some of which are complete unknowns.  That is why I do not choose to ride out these corrections with a fully loaded stock portfolio.  I currently am at about 40% of my “100% level of stocks.”  For some, the 100% level should be 90-100%, while for others in late retirement 30% might be all they would want in equity exposure.  If you are a shrewd value investor like Warren Buffett, you could have a huge percentage of your assets in stocks and be fine.   You had better understand value well to do that.  That said, I was able to make good money trading Buffett’s stock (BRKA/BRKB) up and down last summer and have held it since the bottom.  It is the one position I have not traded since.  I am using a wide stop on it.

Commodities (CRB Index, DBC (watch out for tax consequences in IRAs), DJP) have made a dip below the 50 day moving average and now are just above.  The currency we call gold has been having trouble scaling immediate overhead resistance.  If it makes it over there, I’ll have to re-enter, but for now, my trading position is zero and my long position is around 10% of total assets while my trading position was about 5%.  Some say you should only have 5% of assets in gold.  Unfortunately they often don’t state whether they are talking about liquid assets or total assets.  I heard Cramer talking about 20% a while back, again without specifying his terms.  If you have a lot of other hard assets like real estate, you probably don’t need as much gold exposure, but real estate is not as liquid as gold of course.  Make your own judgment as usual.

The near month US dollar index futures (USDX, UUP) broke out slightly again maintaining the steady up trend.  This is the biggest headwind for both stocks and for gold. 

Catch up with the GLD Gold ETF Chart: http://www.sunandstorminvesting.com/gld-etf-gold-market-timing.html

Standard Disclaimer: It’s your money and your decision as to how to invest it.

Please subscribe for free here:

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Copyright © 2012  By Wall Street Sun and Storm Report, LLC All rights reserved.

Posted in federal reserve, gold, gold etf, investment, Market timing, mid-cap stocks, S&P 500 Index, small cap stocks, trading, Treasuries, US Dollar Index, volatility index | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Market Timing Brief for 09-21-2012: Levitating Markets

Posted on September 25, 2012 by David Durand

Based on the 9-21-2012 Close published Sunday Sept. 23rd, 2012

UPDATE for 9-28-2012: Many indices bounced up in their down trend patterns yesterday and are resuming their downward moves today as the US Dollar strengthens.  The key market timing signals are clear.  The US Dollar is now challenging a new breakout point (@11:34 am; UUP).  If it rises above there (21.93 for UUP),  both stocks and metals will correct (SPX, SPY, GLD).   GLD, the gold ETF, rechallenged the prior high after dropping out of the consolidation in a dramatic way on 9-26-2012. 

I have more to say, but here is where the gold ETF is:

Market timing GLD: Gold ETF Stuck Below Resistance After A Great Run

Gold Stuck Below Resistance After A Great Run

I believe still, as I tweeted yesterday, that this GLD gold ETF pattern is similar to that of around 9-08-2011, and the next move is more likely a correction in the up trend rather than a new high.  If a new high occurs, let me make it clear that I will be buying it.  In market timing, when you are wrong, you must accept that you are wrong and be willing to change your mind.

9-26-2012 Chart Update at the Close:

sp500-index-market-timing-chart-2012-09-26-close

SP500 Index is now correcting and close to testing the breakout above the April 2011 high.

UPDATE for 9-25-2012: Today the SP500 Index (SPX,SPY) is still sloshing around the recent consolidation band (sideways move) and it looks as though there is plenty of room on the chart for a pullback, even if brief.  The index could either fall back to 1422.38 and retest the last major breakout or go still lower to either the 50 day moving average or to the prior up trend line at 1377.  This would then allow for a year-end rally.

Lots of breakouts and by the stretch in some of the strongest charts, a bit of panic buying that may not last!  I’ll get to a few examples in this issue and mention one sector that may be turning around and present a reasonable buying point.

Biotech broke out again and since the breakout has taken off like a rocket.    It has more than tripled since the 2009 low. 

The SP500 Index has held onto the recent breakout as this week’s chart shows, although it has been in a consolidation (sideways move) over the past 6 trading days. 

The chart of the SP500 Index shows the big jump here:

http://www.sunandstorminvesting.com/sp500-index-sp500tracker.html

The Dow Transports are a concern for the market, because they are now testing the bottom range of their support.  It could be because commodities including oil have had some strength recently.  And of course, there is the slowing of the world economy.  We really need to get some trade going with other planets!  This world is just not big enough any more.

Another negative sign is the testing below the breakout point for banking stocks (BKX, XLF).  Retests of this kind don’t always fail, but they are a sign of caution.  If the break persists, I’d consider taking some profits in banking stocks if I had them.  The other important player, housing remains strong though making brand new highs this week (HGX, ITB).  I tweeted my buy of ITB at short term support last week for those of you who follow me on Twitter (link is below).   The index is stretched, so it’s more of a trade than a buy this week and it’s a higher risk entry point for sure.

The last negative that stands out is the failure of small cap stocks to scale the May 2011 high.  It does not mean it cannot happen without a significant pullback, but the risk of such a pullback went up.  The Midcaps (MDX, MDY) failed a breakout which is also negative, so some warning signs are creeping into the technicals.  

Gold is being recognized as more of a currency than a commodity.  Deutsche Bank analysts said this week that “While it is included in the commodities basket, it is in fact a medium of exchange and one that is officially recognized – if not publicly used as such.”  “We see gold as an officially recognized form of money for one primary reason: it is widely held by most of the world’s larger central banks as a component of reserves.”

The issue for gold near term at least is that the US Dollar Index (USDX, UUP) smells like a headwind for gold and commodities.  In fact, I upgraded the US dollar index to a Bull 1.  The US Dollar Index has found some support and has turned up enough to raise concern for a dollar rally, concern that is for holders of anything other than dollars and that includes gold.  Now this may just be a mild correction or something greater.  Longer term, the fundamentals still are sound for gold and bad for US dollars.

GLD Gold ETF Chart: http://www.sunandstorminvesting.com/gld-etf-gold-market-timing.html

Gold mining stocks (GDX, HUI) have recovered more than half of what they had lost in the prior pullback.  That is some performance, which is of course based upon gold’s performance.

Treasuries are falling in yield and rising in price, which may at this point be saying that rates are responding to the Fed’s action.  It looks like the 10 Year Treasury Note could test the 50 day moving average at least before bouncing.  As long as rates stay roughly in the recent trading range, stocks will do well.  Rates going too high would make stocks look very unattractive.

Have a look here at where Treasuries are headed: The Bonus Chart of the Week: http://www.sunandstorminvesting.com/index.html

Sentiment hardly moved at all this week and still supports a further rally just as it did last week.  Investor sentiment by AAII shows the Bulls and Bears are at a spread (subtracting Bears from Bulls) of +3.7% barely changing from +3.5% last week.  The Bulls are only at 37.5% this week vs. 36.46% last week and could move all the way to 46%ish before the rally ends.  Sentiment is clearly NOT in the way.

The VIX volatility index (VIX, VXX) is testing the August lows.  As mentioned in the past few issues, it must fall below 13.30 for the Bulls to really bring out the party hats.

Utilities had a nice reversal from the recent breakdown and may be a good buy here.  You’ll get slightly better prices than I got.  A break of this level should not be held however.  I will exit if it does.  The risk?  Expensive energy is the risk.  If the oil rally revives itself, utilities could come under additional pressure.

Standard Disclaimer: It’s your money and your decision as to how to invest it.

The above is the text from the 9-21-2012  “Weekly Wall Street Sun and Storm Report™.  To see the rest of the current issue and this week’s ratings of all 35 markets I follow and receive the newsletter every weekend, subscribe here: 

www.sunandstorminvesting.com/subscribe-to-sp500tracker-newsletter-and-tips.html

By the way, if you “liked” this post, please “Like” it at the “Share” arrow below and/or re-Tweet it below.

And to follow my Buys and Sells and up to the minute insights, please follow and bookmark my Twitter feed here: http://Twitter.com/#!/SunAndStormInv

Copyright © 2012  By Wall Street Sun and Storm Report, LLC All rights reserved.

Posted in gold, gold etf, housing, investment, Market timing, S&P 500 Index, trading, Treasuries, US Dollar Index, volatility index | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Market Timing Brief for 09-14-2012: Money Here, Money There, Monetary Easing Everywhere!

Posted on September 17, 2012 by David Durand

Based on the 9-14-2012 Close published Sunday Sept. 16th, 2012

UPDATE for 9-19-2012: Today the 10 Year Treasury Note has reverted back to Bear 2 from Bear 3 market timing status, and that is occurring at the prior August low.  The turn could be an important one.  Now here is the issue: Are rates falling because the market is moving back to fear or because it now believes that the Fed will rule over rates?  Did the Fed buy some more Treasuries to create the illusion of cooperation by the bond market or did investors accomplish this? 

We’ll never know the latter most likely, but the key finding is that the VIX is down 2.47% while the 10 Year Treasury yield is down 2.43% (Treasuries are rallying).  The VIX decline means that fear is actually falling, not rising as it did before when Treasuries are rallying.  In summary,  I would interpret the data to mean that the market believes in the Fed and that, my friends, is supportive of a further rally in stocks.

Bad news for Dr. B.  Treasuries (TNX, TYX) have broken down into a Bear 3 status.  (Read about my Bull-Bear market timing system here: My System)  They are selling off once again.  It happened before with QE2 and it’s happening again.  The question is whether the slowing economy will prevent the hoarders from driving up the prices of all commodities relentlessly forcing the Fed to its knees due to inflation?  The last time the Fed acted without the European Central Bank (ECB), there were food riots in India.  Remember?  Be careful to preserve profits in your bond positions.  I know that a big bond sell-off could be many quarters away, but it will come.

Have a look here at where Treasuries are headed: The Bonus Chart of the Week: http://www.sunandstorminvesting.com/index.html

The bond sell-off will come eventually because the laws of the Universe have not been repealed.  Printing funny money will come home to roost.  All the Fed is doing is moving money from the bank accounts of retired savers to those of under water house owners.  He tells the savers that they are better off with higher stocks and higher housing prices.  You can decide what you believe to be the truth.

In the meantime, stay away from bonds, except junk bonds per the trend up (now stretched and only a hold), but be prepared to buy some municipal bonds when they are discounted heavily.

Fiscal constraint is no where in sight.  Pres. Obama and Pres. Possibility Romney BOTH will spend big wads of cash; it’s just that they’ll spend it on different things and in the end there will still be huge deficits.  Gold and other metals should continue on up as long as these characters are all we have to choose from.

The SP500 Index made another big breakout this past Thursday.  There has been one breakout per Central Bank Chairman.  Fair is fair.  Money is money, so it doesn’t matter whether the Europeans, Bernanke, or the Chinese are spraying money around.  It all drives up asset prices.

The chart of the SP500 Index (SPX, SPY) shows the big jump here:

http://www.sunandstorminvesting.com/sp500-index-sp500tracker.html

Last week I said: “A VIX volatility index (VIX, VXX) move below 13.30 will verify a further rally of the SP500 Index to the 2007 highs.  There are only about 1 to 3 more days left for the VIX to move down before testing the support at the August low.”  This week the VIX hit the August low and bounced a bit.  The Bears think this could be the start of a pullback, but the market is not giving way yet.  The VIX could break 13.30 and head toward the 2005-2007 lows.  The SP500 would retop at the 2007 highs in that case.  This is fascinating because the market really has to get more complacent for that retopping to occur for stocks.  But it CAN happen.

In fact, sentiment still supports a further rally.  Investor sentiment by AAII shows the Bulls and Bears are at a spread (subtracting Bears from Bulls) of +3.5%.  Last week I said: “The Bulls reached 45.61% back in March 2012 before the market finally started selling off from the 4-2-2012 high, so there is room to the upside for sentiment and the markets.”  The Bulls are only at 36.46% this week and have plenty of room to run.

My metal recommendation to buy gold (GLD) has continued to be correct for a third straight week.  Silver has been shooting up as well.  Stay in gold (I decided to switch out of my silver to gold to contain risk – silver won in the end, but gold did too).  Do protect profits with a stop at a certain point and just get back in if you need to.  Set your stops where you feel comfortable.

Gold broke out in again on Thursday along with silver (SLV), which was a gift from the Fed to you as shown:

GLD Gold ETF Chart: http://www.sunandstorminvesting.com/gld-etf-gold-market-timing.html

Gold is not as good of a buy this week as last, because there is overhead resistance as the chart shows.  That is not to say it won’t go through those levels, but it would explain a pullback or hesitation there.

The US Dollar Index was clobbered last week of course (UUP, USDX, EUR/USD).   The October 2011 lows are in sight.  I expect the dollar to drop to those levels and further support the rallies in the precious metal and commodity markets.  I do not expect a single move there however.  The dollar index is nearing some support as discussed in the MTT below, so there is the risk of a bounce.  Realize that the Fed does have to be careful here, as commodities are already more than half way back to the prior high!

Standard Disclaimer: It’s your money and your decision as to how to invest it.

To receive future reports ahead of publication please subscribe for free here:

www.sunandstorminvesting.com/subscribe-to-sp500tracker-newsletter-and-tips.html

By the way, if you “liked” this post, please “Like” it at the “Share” arrow below and/or re-Tweet it below.

And to follow my Buys and Sells and up to the minute insights, please follow and bookmark my Twitter feed here: http://Twitter.com/#!/SunAndStormInv

Copyright © 2012  By Wall Street Sun and Storm Report, LLC All rights reserved.

Posted in gold, gold etf, investment, Market timing, S&P 500 Index, silver, silver ETF, trading, Treasuries, US Dollar Index, volatility index | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Market Timing Brief for 09-07-2012: SP500 Index Breakout and Metals Gone Mad Based on “Unlimited” Euro Printing!

Posted on September 12, 2012 by David Durand

Based on the 9-07-2012 Close published Sunday Sept. 9th, 2012

Before we get started I have a thank you.  Thank you for making this the number one free market timing newsletter in the world according to Google!  It has taken a few years of publishing to get here, but I am very appreciative that you take the time to read the newsletter and frequent the website.  Please let me know how I can better serve you via the contact box on the main site at  SunAndStormInvesting.com.

sp500-index-market-timing-chart-2012-09-12-close

The SP500 Index has held onto another market timing breakout and now awaits action by the Federal Reserve!

UPDATE 9-12-2012 at 10:14 pm: The market breakout I refer to below has held up now for a full five days.  That is very positive.  IF the Fed disappoints the market by, for example, taking no action at all, this breakout could collapse. 

The Fed tends to want to stay in step with the market, so the lack of any action would be a true “left field event.”  If that hunch is correct, expect more upside with a potential retest of the SP500 Index 2007 highs before the next pullback.  Remember too to watch your stops.  Our system involves discipline in protecting principle and profits.

I do have one concern and that is the continued sell-off in the 10 Year Treasury Note.  If the Fed is going to act tomorrow to provide more easing, then why are treasuries still selling off? They should be rallying.  You may not need them, but this is why I would decide on your stops should tomorrow be a big surprise.

Last week I felt the SP500 Index (SPX, SPY) was acting toppy; however, the Sun and Storm Investing™ way is to observe what is happening and to respond rather than react to it.  This week the SP500 Index came up with the necessary strength to break out to new recent highs over the April 2nd, 2012 high.   The reason?  The market seems to think the Fed will be as loose as the ECB in Europe given the lousy employment numbers on Friday that were under expectations.  The ECB’s Draghi said the Euro (EUR/USD) printing to support the European bond market will be “unlimited.”  Thanks for making that clear!

The chart of the SP500 Index shows the big jump here:

http://www.sunandstorminvesting.com/sp500-index-sp500tracker.html

I did also say: “Remember that if new highs in the SP500 Index hold, that will erase all the bad technicals.  The catch is that sometimes the market takes in the suckers for a day and then pulls the rug, so be sure any new high that is achieved lasts through the 3rd day or so” before committing new money.  So far we have 2 days above the prior high.  What happened back in 2007 when the SP500 Index went above its high for the year 2000 by ONE day?   It reversed the next day.  The next upside targets are noted in the text for the above chart.  The first of these targets is the 2008 high, which is right above the current level.

A VIX volatility index (VIX, VXX) move below 13.30 will verify a further rally of the SP500 Index to the 2007 highs.  There are only about 1 to 3 more days left for the VIX to move down before testing the support at the August low.

Investor sentiment by AAII shows the Bulls and Bears dead even at 33.06% each and that makes the Spread between the two, ZERO.  So with breakouts in the markets and no sentiment bias up or down, that to me is much more supportive of the Bulls than the Bears.  The Bulls reached 45.61% back in March 2012 before the market finally started selling off from the 4-2-2012 high, so there is room to the upside for sentiment and the markets.

My metal recommendation to buy gold (GLD) has continued to be correct for a second straight week.  Silver (SLV) has also been a big winner despite the fact that it insists on bursting up faster than investors can pile on.  I added silver on Thursday intraday and then again at the close.  When metals jump as much as they are in a single day, they make it hard for investors to climb on board.  Make sure to average in to avoid buying a top and losing 5% or more in a few days, which could happen under circumstances discussed at the link below.

Last week I also said: “Tell of the week: Watch the US dollar index futures (USDX, UUP, EUR/USD) this week.   If the dollar breaks the June and August support levels, stocks will benefit and so will the metals!”  The U.S. Dollar index indeed broke down and the metals shot up big time.

Gold broke out in a BIG way yet again on Friday as shown:

GLD Gold ETF Chart: http://www.sunandstorminvesting.com/gld-etf-gold-market-timing.html

The CRB index also broke continues strong.  Keep buying until the Fed pulls the plug – then watch your stops.  Counting all commodities and metals, I now have about 14% of my net worth in “stuff.”  If you own real estate, you have a buffer from that as well, since real estate prices are at least more stable to rising depending on the market.

The 10 year Treasury Note has reversed course with Euro failure fears on the wane.  The yield on the 10 Year Treasury Note (TNX) made a higher low in yield this week and is moving UP.  (means the Treasuries are selling off and their yields are rising).  This is good news for stocks.  Investors could shift more assets into the stock market and that alone could propel the SP500 Index from 13 to 15 or 16 times earnings without a problem.  Remember that oddly enough investors love to buy stocks once we are close to all time highs.  Have a look here at where Treasuries are headed: The Bonus Chart of the Week: http://www.sunandstorminvesting.com/index.html

Standard Disclaimer: It’s your money and your decision as to how to invest it.

To receive future reports ahead of publication please subscribe for free here:

www.sunandstorminvesting.com/subscribe-to-sp500tracker-newsletter-and-tips.html

By the way, if you “liked” this post, please “Like” it at the “Share” arrow below and/or re-Tweet it below.

And to follow my Buys and Sells and up to the minute insights, please follow and bookmark my Twitter feed here: http://Twitter.com/#!/SunAndStormInv

Copyright © 2012  By Wall Street Sun and Storm Report, LLC All rights reserved.

Posted in gold, gold etf, investment, Market timing, S&P 500 Index, silver, silver ETF, trading, Treasuries, US Dollar Index, volatility index | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment