A Market Timing Report based on the 3-14-2014 Close published Sunday March 16th, 2014
UPDATE 3-17-14 @ 11:05 am: More accurate numbers, which have some error built in as these represent points on trend lines projected over 40 days: SPX resistance line = 1856.52. SPY = 185.83. We are now above both after a retest by sellers, so we’ll see what happens by the close. Reclaiming 1850.84 alone would be a victory for the Bulls and COULD allow for a re-topping of the market. If we close above the 1856.52ish level, the Bulls will likely take us back to the prior highs at least.
UPDATE 3-17-14 @ 9:15 am ET: SPY is trading back ABOVE the highs that form the green line on the chart below. BUT, it’s still below both the high from Friday of 185.80 and it’s below the green line itself, which measures out on an accurate chart to 185.84.
The Bulls need to exceed 185.84 to reclaim the prior all time high.
The SP500 Index (SPX, SPY) closed for 7 market days above the prior high, which normally traders would consider a successful breakout, but after it was 3 days over, it tested successfully lower intraday lows, which showed that the rally was weak. The abrupt drop on Thursday defines the prior breakout as false. Friday was a consolidation after the break.
We are likely headed lower to one of the support levels shown. You can see that the 50 day moving average is converging with one support line and that could support the next bounce. I’ve written several pages for free subscribers on our strategy with all the numbers, which are on the website (sign up via link below). I’ll also update the major markets we follow by tonight.
Here’s the SP500 Index Chart (click to enlarge):
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