Market Timing Brief for the 9-19-2014 Close: Stocks Still Poised to Pull Back. Gold Headed to Bottom. Rates Falling Again?

A Market Timing Report based on the 9-19-2014 Close, published Sunday September 21, 2014

The SP500 Index is still slipping, as often happens near tops.  Tops sometimes are revisited.  The SP500 bounced up to the prior high and failed to break out.  Some hugely positive turn of international events could potentially spark a further rally to new highs, though unlikely, and given the tide of signs of economic slowing throughout the world, stocks may decide to at least take a breather until Europe and Japan find some reasonable footing and U.S. growth re-accelerates.  U.S. multinationals are exposed.

We took a bit off near the top in our model portfolio and will wait for a further pullback to reinvest it, or a higher high, which I clearly see as less likely to preceed at least a pullback of a few percent. (Don’t be too distracted by the big volume strike on Friday, as it was Quadruple Witching Day in the options market.)

To find out what I’m going, including buys and sells, please follow me here: Follow Me on Twitter®.   Follow Me on StockTwits®   You don’t have to make comments yourself to read my messages.

SP500 Index (SPX, SPY; click the chart to enlarge it):

sp500-index-market-timing-chart-2014-09-19-close

A Failed Breakout and Space to Fall.

Meanwhile, this week investor sentiment turned a bit too positive (learn what the downside risk is; this is an update from this past Thursday):  Survey Says! What About Investor Sentiment?

The U.S. Small Cap Chart (RUT, IWM):

U.S. Small Caps looked like they could reverse UP again (despite my warnings about valuation) and yet by Friday, they were headed down again (click the chart to enlarge it).

rut-small-cap-russell-2000-index-market-timing-chart-2014-09-19-close

Small caps failed to gain traction.

Gold:  GLD, the gold ETF, has now broken two levels of support.  It could head down toward the major low you see on the chart, but that could be interrupted if rates keep falling from their recent high and drag the dollar down with them.  Dollar down, gold up.

The Gold ETF Chart (GLD; click to enlarge the chart):

gld-gold-etf-market-timing-chart-2014-09-19-close

Gold dives. The thing that can save it is a dollar reversal with rates.

The 10 Year Treasury interest rate (TNX, tracked by TLT if Bullish; TBT if Bearish; click the chart to enlarge it): Rates falling again can drive the US Dollar down and gold UP.

tnx-10-year-treasury-note-market-timing-chart-2014-09-19-close

Rates ready to fall again?

Be sure to visit the website at: Sun and Storm Investing™

Standard Disclaimer: It’s your money and your decision as to how to invest it.

I thank Worden Brothers for the charting system I use to post these charts.  If you want to know more about the charting system I use every day, go to my “Other Resources” page here:  Other Resources   It makes it much easier to follow along with me if you can see the charts and manipulate them on your own computer.  It’s a great investment to have an excellent charting system.  Check it out with a free trial at the link above.

Note that the newsletter is now closed to new subscriptions, but may be re-opened in the future.  Stay tuned here in the meantime and follow all the action via the Twitter® and StockTwits® links above.

Copyright © 2014 By Wall Street Sun and Storm Report, LLC All rights reserved.

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This entry was posted in Bonds, gold, investment, large cap stocks, S&P 500 Index, small cap stocks, Treasuries and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

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