A Market Timing Report based published Monday, March 12th, 2018
I deliver focused comments on market timing once or twice a week. These are supplemented with daily “Tweets/StockTwits” (see links below). If you are not interested in bitcoin, see my latest post by scrolling down to the SP500 section HERE. Thank you.
Is Bitcoin Falling or Rising? How Could This Bitcoin Bear Market End?
The overall trend could still be considered down as I’ll show you, despite a resolution of the previously charted downward wedge to the upside. The break of that wedge to the upside was positive for sure. That led to the short term bounce to a lower high from the Feb. low. What is needed to change the big trend is a daily chart higher high, and that new high must stick; it cannot be a failed market timing breakout as we saw back in early 2018.
The good news from a Fibonacci market timing perspective is that we’ve had wave 1 down, a double 2nd wave up, a 3rd wave down to the Feb. low, a double 4th wave, and now we could be completing a 5th wave down which would be most effective in supporting a new up trend if it hit that Feb. low again or even went a bit lower. That would be a full retest with capitulation. A reversal back above the Feb. low OR a bounce off that low would complete the latest Bitcoin Bear Market.
Added 3-29-2018: A fifth wave can extend LOWER than the Feb. low [6001 on Bittrex; that # varies by exchange].
A final “Bullish Way Out” is viewing the low preceding the second circle from the left as an inverted shoulder, the Feb. low as an “inverted head,” and the late Feb. low as an inverted right shoulder, the whole picture being called a reverse head and shoulders formation. The last little dip was a retest of the inverted shoulders, and for now, bitcoin remains above that level. As long as bitcoin advances from here and does not fail at those inverted shoulders (drop below them), this reverse head and shoulders formation could lead to a rally back to 17.500 or so. That is the most Bullish scenario from here…
In the meantime, if we see such a rally, I would risk manage your bitcoin (and ALL cryptocurrencies) as I outlined previously HERE.
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