“Market Timing Blog™ Updates for the Week of 10/26/2026”
The most current update is just below the intro…
I will be posting updates on Opportunity Ranges™, along with selective market timing charts at times. Some will still be posted to social media. You’ll see trades first posted to StockTwits® generally, so please see the links below to connect…
Remember to interpret the range positions in the context of daily price charts…
In a strong uptrend, you #BuyTheSlips as I often say. You can make more money on your investments by paying attention to how overbought or oversold a stock is.
For a stock in a steep downtrend, you would not buy it if it only rose to 40-60% within the range; instead, you would sell some of it at least if you want to lower your exposure to further losses.
Feel free to ask questions, and if you have one ask it below or on social media…
10/28/2026 Market Timing Update: Why the Acclaimed Post-Election Predictability May Fail This Time”
Not the recipe for a sustained rally…
Conclusion: “Post-Election Predictability” may give way to “Post-Election Iran War UNpredictability”! It’s up to POTUS Trump who is often unpredictable as we’ve seen…
“Market Timing Blog™ Updates for the Week of 10/19/2026”
10/23/2026 Market Timing Update: “Is That It and What’s Kev Going to Do Next Week?”
Per my indicators no. VIX is still off the Bull Game Board (Bulls 0 vs. Bears 8) and my Fast Buy indicator which actually turned Bullish yesterday for a day went to Neutral in the morning and then back to Bullish and now back playing stop and go between Neutral and Bullish. The close is the deciding factor now. (prior was from about 2:30 pm ET; now 5:14 pm ET: The close was with VIX still too high and the Fast Buy was neutral not Bullish, but it can change again in one day in either direction obviously.)
QQQ is a major tell on where we’re headed from here at least in the large cap space. It tested two key levels earlier today and survived, although it remains below my immediate trend level (although not by a lot yet). The intermediate term trend is still intact.
What’s happening in QQQ is also happening in SPY! The top weighted stocks have weakened while the “less volatile, long term lousy, and/or ignored stocks” have gained strength. Investors lowered their tech exposure in the AI area especially and shifted it to “the rest of QQQ and SPY.” You might think RSP, the equal weight SP500 ETF is a place to go, and it’s not bad, but not the winner.
It turns out that I did trade out of 1/2 my initial position in midcap growth IJK to 1/2 in XLV SPX Healthcare and the other 1/2 of the capital in SPYV, the SP500 Value ETF. Both were down today but are trending up. XLV is toppy but a new breakout, while SPYV is near the prior high, but strong. Could it tip down from here? Yes, and if it does, I’ll deal with it… So the winner I was alluding to was SPYV as compared to RSP. XLV is beating both of them, but I don’t want to load up at a breakout that fails.
RSP was beating SPY up to its recent high, because “they were buying the crappy stocks.” But did you know RSP rebalances to equal weight quarterly? They buy more of the weakest stocks, which can then get weaker, and sell the stocks that are working best every single quarter.
SPX/SPY: The SP500 Index is in uptrends for the immediate and intermediate term trend, but is not far away from losing both. That means the market needs to hold “about here,” for the rally in large caps to resume.
There is not much rate hike risk next week, because the market says Warsh and company at the Fed will choose not to fight inflation this round, despite Warsh’s pledge to bring inflation down to the target level.
Why won’t the Fed hike? The market per the CME Fed Tool says “Don’t do it!” at 89.5% for Oct. but “Do it!” in December at 78.1% and says there will be one more hike in March at a less enthusiastic 64.1%. So this month is not the time says the market.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has said he’ll let the market lead the Fed with less guidance from them and with shorter press conferences ;), so he should be happy that the TNX 10 Year Yield has settled down from its recent frenzy for the short term at least. Fighting an 89.5% probability of “no rate hike” would not make a lot of sense at this meeting, even though inflation pressures like oil have definitely NOT settled down…
Tough job eh Kev? 😉
If they do hike the Fed Funds rate, stock investors are going to be yelling “Kevin!” (movie reference!)
Here is where the day ended…
Follow me at the social media links below (scroll down a bit to the first post this week and I’ll let you know IF/WHEN the Large Caps break down. That may not happen until 2027 as I’ve explained in my posts on social media…
10/20/2026 Market Timing Update: “The AI Bubble Has Already Burst”
If you are waiting for the AI Bubble to break, stop waiting, because it already has broken.
ARM, at the center of AI chip production is now at -49.7% from its ATH. That’s a bubble that burst all by itself, but it’s not alone.
AMSL is a bit better at -36.0%. Still, down that much means an investor has to have a 56.3% gain to get back to the ATH. For ARM an investor needs a gain of 101% to get back to the ATH. I could list many more stocks like this, but it would be redundant.
And yes, a recovery for these stocks could occur, as they are solid companies that were sucked into the AI Bubble vortex. “When” is the question.
The stocks that are already in their own Bear markets may become buys before the rest of the giants “give it up,” or they may form a consolidation pattern, entering a bottoming process for months. They could revisit their recent lows when the entire market sells off, because everything is relative.
In a “Big Bear Market,” virtually nothing works. All sectors decline and there is nowhere left to hide just as occurred back in the Great Financial Crisis of 2008-2009 and during the Dot.Com Crash of 2000-2003. Some sectors could work for a while, and then they too will be sucked into any major decline…
Whatever the timing of the evolution of the decline, the AI Bubble has burst. The question is how much damage the completion of the bubble bursting does at the surface where a small number of stocks have held up the major indexes.
Are the major indexes going to be headed into the “bubble burst” sooner or will it be later? Markets often resist the first decline and attempt big bounces, before fear starts to mount, so we can’t rule out a final push to new highs before 2027. I’d say that by 2027 when the comparisons vs. the prior year no longer show growth or even show slowing, the major indexes will at least go into a Mini Bear Market per My Definitions, but given the huge run, I would not rule out a Big Bear Market...
You can stay invested, and exit when the breaks occur IMO, but loading up on high volatility investments ahead of this could result in losses...unless you are very nimble… I tell you what I sell when I sell it directly on my social media streams, so stay tuned…
Keep up-to-date and read my comments on the current setup during the week at the below links) where a combined 37,184 investors follow the markets with me…
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“Market Timing Blog™ Updates for the Week of 10/12/2026”
10/15/2026 Market Timing Update:
Gold is leading the major indexes/investments on a falling U.S. 10 Year Treasury Yield (down another 10.1 bp today after a big drop from a reversal high with a final drop of 2.70 bp yesterday). The bounce in IWM small caps is not meaningful at +0.63%, so it doesn’t seem to be responding to the drop in interest rates. Not yet…
Contrast that with ITB (Housing ETF) that is +3.62% at this time and Lowe’s (LOW) +3.56%, although for ITB today is the first bounce day. LOW is in a continued though tentative bounce, and both have been in downtrends since early this year. Neither will work if oil continues higher. DBO is up 6 straight days…
10/13/2026 Market Timing Update:
I’ve been commenting on how U.S. midcaps have been showing some strength. Investors may be continuing to look for better value even in mid cap growth (IJK and IWP) vs. small caps, which are the most exposed in general to rising interest rates. SPMO, SPX Momentum, was the weakest today in price change and range position at the close…
“Market Timing Blog™ Updates for the Week of 10/05/2026”
10/09/2026 Market Timing Updates:
IWR which is Midcap Growth and Value was +0.87% today. We own IJK (Mid Growth) which was +1.03% for today.
IWR led again in Opportunity Range™ position as well as in return among the U.S. equity indexes noted in the table. Gold regained some buying interest with GLD closing at 94% within its range at the end of the trading day. Bitcoin was close behind in gains, but not stretched!
10/07/2026 Market Timing Updates:
Slight pressured selling in Bitcoin (BTC) and RUT (IWM).
Why? TNX 10 Year Treasury Yield is up another 4.2 bp and still ramping higher.
SPMO is holding up best among the equity inv. listed, but at this point pure large Tech is leading. From the July low, rank is XLK, IGM, and then QTEC (pure tech from QQQ). IGM is a broad tech ETF. XLK is at 33% in its ORange™, not bad, but slightly below the 40-60% level. I’d watch XLK for a lower entry point (see next point!).
There could be more follow through selling into the next 1-2 days at which point a bounce COULD start. That’s the minimum day count to being oversold, but if rates keep ramping, there won’t be a bounce, so watch TNX closely!
Earlier posts…
“Market Timing Blog™ Updates for the Week of 9/28/2026″
10/02/2026 Market Timing Updates:
XLK leads on gains and XLB on position in the range (XLB is almost to the top of the range at 97% of the predicted top of the range for today). XLF is a great example of what not to buy when it’s in the blue (40-60% in the range and in a downtrend on the daily chart).
Blue means it could be going either way. It’s a decent short if the trend is down in this case for XLF. Take a look at the daily chart on Yahoo Finance or other system, and you will see…
XLE on the other hand is light green and still in an uptrend despite the recent pullback on oil’s decline. It could be bought if you don’t mind assuming the implicit “Trump risk” around the war with Iran.
XLV is below the buy zone and has broken down again from another lower higher, which means the immediate trend is not your friend…
10/01/2026 Market Timing Updates:
XLK and XLE are leading with XLV trailing with some pressured selling (sold below the predicted range low for the day)…
09/29/2026 Market Timing Updates:
XLK is the best daily chart, but near an all time high (ATH), so it needs to make a new high.
XLP, XLI, and XLY are also “in the blue” but attempting to hold lows. If they hold good, if not, use a stop if you intend to buy them. If you buy XLK near this high, I would also use a stop…
09/28/2026 Market Timing Updates:
3:11 pm Update:
Since this morning’s comment XLC still trails in range position and degree of loss for the day, but XLV has moved slightly ahead of XLP. XLK is in the right buy range as a strong uptrend, but needs to make a new high (see its daily chart)…
09/28/2026 – 10:28 am Update:
Gold is experiencing strong pressured selling with GLD down 3.7% at the moment. The only other actual strength on the board is TNX, the 10 Year Treasury Yield (now at 5.272%; 11:00 am ET up a stiff 8.7 basis points). This represents a further rate shock, which means the market is concerned that the Federal Reserve is behind, virtually insuring further rate hikes by the Fed.
Higher rates compete with gold, as it has no yield, which is why it likes lower REAL interest rates, which is the rate of return of bonds minus inflation.
Smaller companies needing external funding for growth don’t care for higher rates either, as you see with small and mid caps both down again today and weak in their ranges (both are in downtrends).
Gold also looks like it’s on its way to retesting the prior major low. Once GLD broke that 390.20 level I shared with you on social media, I was skeptical that it would hold, and it didn’t…
I’ll be posting the sector picture later today around 3 pm ET, so please check back here or click the pic on social media. At the moment XLC trails at 9% in its range for the day, with XLP leading at 77% in its range for today, both above water for now… (the update time is obviously a.m. not p.m. ;))
Gold is experiencing significant pressured selling.
“Market Timing Blog™ Updates for the Week of 09/21/2026”
09/23/2026 Market Timing Updates:The elephant in the room in terms of impact is the 10 Year Yield, TNX, which is exploding to the upside, breaching today’s range by a mile.
TNX is up a whopping 16.20 basis points today…
Note that SPMO is down 1.25% with a range position right on the edge of what is normally buyable in a strong uptrend. It’s having an “inside day” today, so it’s not quite as bad as it looks.
XLY, XLRE, and XLU are all interest rate sensitive, which explains their weakness. (consumer discretionary, real estate, and utility sectors)
XLE (oil sector) is near the top of the heap in range position and leads by a lot in performance at +1.00% for today.
09/22/2026 Market Timing Updates:
The numbers have changed somewhat from the above as it’s now 1:52 pm, but not by much. It was important to get this 1st post of it’s kind right!
Standard Disclaimer: It’s your money and your decision as to how to invest it.
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