A Market Timing Report based on the 9-05-2014 Close, published Sunday September 7th, 2014
As I was nearing work on September 11th, 2001, the first plane struck 1 World Trade Center in Manhattan, just 1 1/2 hours away, instantly killing hundreds of people on impact, soon to lead to nearly 3000 deaths. It is to them we owe a moment of silence this week. Pause if you would and consider them for just one minute and then we’ll continue to the markets….
SP500 Index (SPX, SPY):
We are now 11 days past the first of two breakout attempts on the daily Sp500 chart. The first breakout failed as you see below. Now that we are at a new closing high, there is room above to about 2035 at the channel line if the Bulls want it.
Meanwhile, this week the investor sentiment data fits the 7-10-2013 scenario I outlined here (learn what the downside risk is): Survey Says! What About Investor Sentiment?
U.S. Small Caps: Where are the small caps (RUT, IWM) at this point? The small cap market is slowing down. We could see a dip here. Is there room to run higher? Yes, but as mentioned last week, valuations do NOT support such a movem although that has not always stopped rallies.
Let’s look at the small cap chart:
Gold: GLD, the gold ETF, has fallen through a level of support. The first red line below the current level on the chart below is now our target.
The Gold ETF Chart (GLD; click to enlarge the chart):
The 10 Year Treasury interest rate (TNX, tracked by TLT if Bullish; TBT if Bearish): Rates have made a reversal back above a prior breakdown point. They’ll need to rise a bit more to break the obvious down trend on the daily chart below. If rates collapse back once more and the U.S. dollar fails, the metals will be supported.
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