A Market Timing Report based on the 1-23-2015 Close, published Monday January 24th, 2015
UPDATE 1-27-2015 11:34 am: SPX bounce is happening at this 15 min chart support line shown in this chart of SPY. See Twitter/StockTwits for more. I think we can easily break this line barring extreme Fed dovishness tomorrow and test 1988-2015:
And now for the report from Sunday night and the updated charts:
The S&P 500 Index (SPX, SPY) continued its bounce this week with the ECB leak and final announcement of ECB QE 1. The ECB will buy sovereign and corporate debt in the amount of 60 Billion Euros per month out to Sept. 2016. This was enough to inspire a further rally off the double bottom pointed out last week. We will stay with this trend. What has worked is staying with the up trend, and until that changes, it’s the place to be.
SP500 Index (SPX, SPY; click the chart to enlarge it):
As for U.S. small caps, they are stalled below prior resistance, but back above the 50 day moving average.
Russell 2000 U.S. Small Cap Chart (click the chart to enlarge it):
Gold had another good week based on the ECB’s Euro printing plans unveiled this week.
The Gold ETF Chart (GLD; click to enlarge the chart):
The 10 Year Treasury interest rate (TNX, tracked by TLT if Bullish; TBT if Bearish): Rates appeared to be moving up a bit but the rally failed. Evidently, the Treasury market sees further deflation coming.
Please Click the TNX Chart to enlarge it:
The fall in WTI oil prices is feeding the deflationary trend and there is no oil rally in sight. Just a consolidation at a lower level (WTI Crude Oil, OIL):
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