A Market Timing Report based on the 2-27-2015 Close, published Sunday March 1st, 2015
I’m continuing with the terse comment format this week. The rest is on Twitter®/StockTwits®.
The SPX has maintained its prior breakout. See the purple line? That line is an upward wedge line that was previously broken. We must rise above that level to void it as a technical landmark. The bullish argument is that the market has broken out to new highs, and we’d have to fall below the prior breakout at 2093.55 to void it.
SP500 Index (SPX, SPY; click the chart to enlarge it):
Small caps have had a clean breakout. They must hold it. The valuation of the RUT is stretched almost to where it was a year ago (per Wall Street Journal stats).
Russell 2000 U.S. Small Cap Chart (RUT, IWM; click the chart to enlarge it):
Gold appears to have found a base. Buying here with a stop would be a reasonable trade set-up. Given the massive money printing happening all over the world, gold should hold up for the time being.
The Gold ETF Chart (GLD; click to enlarge the chart):
Please Click the TNX Chart to enlarge it (see related ETFs, TLT, TBT and UBT): Rates could be falling again. There are those who believe that the Federal Reserve will raise rates a bit simply to come off the near zero level. Rates abroad will continue to pressure U.S. rates to the downside.
CONCLUSIONS: The U.S. stock market breakouts are intact. Gold is a decent trade from here using a stop. The recent Fed speeches are all aligned with a more dovish Fed policy despite their threat of moving the Fed Funds rate off zero.
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