A Market Timing Report based on the 9-04-2015 Close, published Monday September 7th, 2015
I deliver focused comments on the markets. These are supplemented with “Tweets/StockTwits” (see links below).
UPDATE 9-14-2015: My latest thinking about the markets is: HERE
This is a decent place to add exposure back as this slightly higher low in the SP500 Index could hold going into the Fed meeting.
1. The SP500 Index fell back again this past week to retest a slightly higher low. As said, it could hold this week. The challenge will be the Fed meeting ending on 9-17-2015. If the Fed does not raise rates, the stock markets will celebrate as will the Treasury market/bonds. If the Fed does raise rates, the markets may sell off believing that higher rates will slow the economy further. We currently have about 87.5% of usual maximum equity exposure worldwide. Keep up to date at Twitter and StockTwits (links below).
2. Small caps are also seeking a higher low of support.
Russell 2000 U.S. Small Cap Index (RUT, IWM; click to enlarge):
3. Gold is attempting to hold a higher low. If it does not, it’s back to the prior low. Rates should head back down, but if the Fed raises rates on the 17th, the dollar will remain strong, challenging gold.
Gold ETF (GLD):
4. Treasury yields
U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note (TNX,TYX,TLT,TBF): The 10 year Treasury yield appears to hit a temporary high and is falling again. This may not hold up if the Fed actually raises rates on 9-17.
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