Market Timing Brief for the 9-04-2015 Close: Will the Markets Hold Support? Stocks and Gold Seek Support. Rates ease.

A Market Timing Report based on the 9-04-2015 Close, published Monday September 7th, 2015

I deliver focused comments on the markets.  These are supplemented with “Tweets/StockTwits” (see links below).

UPDATE 9-14-2015: My latest thinking about the markets is: HERE

This is a decent place to add exposure back as this slightly higher low in the SP500 Index could hold going into the Fed meeting. 

1. The SP500 Index fell back again this past week to retest a slightly higher low.  As said, it could hold this week.  The challenge will be the Fed meeting ending on 9-17-2015.  If the Fed does not raise rates, the stock markets will celebrate as will the Treasury market/bonds.  If the Fed does raise rates, the markets may sell off believing that higher rates will slow the economy further.  We currently have about 87.5% of usual maximum equity exposure worldwide.  Keep up to date at Twitter and StockTwits (links below).


Testing the lows.

(See my messages on Twitter® Follow Me on Twitter®.   Follow Me on StockTwits®).

2. Small caps are also seeking a higher low of support.

Russell 2000 U.S. Small Cap Index (RUT, IWM; click to enlarge):

rut-small cap-index-market-timing-chart-2015-09-04-close

Also trying to find support.

3. Gold is attempting to hold a higher low.  If it does not, it’s back to the prior low.  Rates should head back down, but if the Fed raises rates on the 17th, the dollar will remain strong, challenging gold.

Gold ETF (GLD):


Gold must hold this higher low.

4. Treasury yields

U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note (TNX,TYX,TLT,TBF): The 10 year Treasury yield appears to hit a temporary high and is falling again.  This may not hold up if the Fed actually raises rates on 9-17.


Rates are headed back down. But that could change if the Fed does in fact raise rates.

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Note that the newsletter is now CLOSED to new subscriptions: Join the Wait List to Join the Newsletter as a Loyal Subscriber, Opening again for the October 4th issue.  If you join and don’t read the newsletter, you will be deleted.  Why?  I don’t publish to non-readers as other newsletters do.  I surround myself with committed people who value what we are doing.  Stay tuned here in the meantime and follow all the action via the Twitter® and StockTwits® links above.

I thank Worden Brothers for the charting system I use to post these charts.  If you want to know more about the charting system I use every day, go to my “Other Resources” page here:  Other Resources   It makes it much easier to follow along with me if you can see the charts and manipulate them on your own computer.  It’s a great investment to have an excellent charting system.  Check it out with a free trial at the link above.

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