Market Timing Brief™ for the 11-20-2015 Close: SP500 Index Crawling Back Toward the All Time High. Gold Holding On In An Odd Place. Rates Soften Ahead of a Fed Rate Hike.

A Market Timing Report based on the 11-20-2015 Close, published Monday Nov. 23th, 2015

I deliver focused comments on the markets.  These are supplemented with “Tweets/StockTwits” (see links below).

1.  SP500 Index: The index may head all the way back to the prior high.
If the economy improves and the next employment report out in early December is as strong as the last one, proving that it was not a fluke, the market can make new highs.  If however, the retail stocks (DOWN big except for Amazon (AMZN) and a few others) are correct and there is trouble ahead for the holiday shopping season, then the market should fail, even if it makes a marginal new high above the prior all time high.

We’ll follow the economy closely.  It’s more important now than what the Federal Reserve can do.  All they are doing is raising rates at the margin into worldwide economic weakness, which could even land us in a recession or at least push us toward it.  The economy is where we need to focus…


Clawing back to the all time high?

Keep up to date at Twitter and StockTwits: See my messages on Twitter® Follow Me on Twitter®.   Follow Me on StockTwits®).

2. U.S. Small caps are bouncing with large caps but not to the same extent, as you see on the chart below.  We are staying long large caps and largely avoiding small and mid cap stocks, but at a lower level of exposure (see Twitter/StockTwits for my exposure level; links above).

Russell 2000 U.S. Small Cap Index (RUT, IWM; click to enlarge):

rut-small cap-index-market-timing-chart-2015-11-20-close

Small caps still trailing large caps.

3. Gold is at a 5 year low testing BELOW a critical support level. Gold is holding up in a strange place, which is JUST BELOW a critical support level.  This is Bullish.  But use a stop if you trade it.  I don’t like gold right now for a trade, but will like it if the dollar stops gaining strength as the market recognizes that the Fed won’t be able to raise rates much at all.  We are not in the gold trade, and only hold gold for currency insurance.  If you trade it, be sure to use a stop.

Gold ETF (GLD; click to enlarge):


Gold is consolidating below support.

4. 10 Year Treasury Note Yield: Yields staged a false breakout recently (did not maintain a high higher than the prior major daily high), and should head lower unless we see an outstanding holiday season and continued job growth.  If things remain weak worldwide, bonds and Treasuries should rally further.

U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note Yield (TNX,TYX,TLT,TBF):


Rates should fall further as the Fed raises rates unless economic activity and retail sales pick up further in the U.S.

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Standard Disclaimer: It’s your money and your decision as to how to invest it.

I thank Worden Brothers for the charting system I use to post these charts.  If you want to know more about the charting system I use every day, go to my “Other Resources” page here:  Other Resources   It makes it much easier to follow along with me if you can see the charts and manipulate them on your own computer.  It’s a great investment to have an excellent charting system.  Check it out with a free trial at the link above.

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