A Market Timing Report based on the 4-07-2017 Open, published Sunday April 9, 2017 (well OK, 12:58 am Monday the 10th!)
I deliver focused comments on market timing once or twice a week. These are supplemented with daily “Tweets/StockTwits” (see links below).
This is a tax time special…long on charts, but short on words. The set-up is the same as last week, given the assumption that the low employment growth in March was a “one off” weak data point. The market is waiting for signs that Trump’s economic growth plans are going to manifest. We’ll continue to track the 3 market timing signals we’ve been watching since early February to show us the way.
1. SP500 Index: Off the all time high, but not by much.
Continue to follow my 3 signals defined in early February HERE.
As of today: STOCK SIGNAL: OFF. GOLD SIGNAL: OFF. INTEREST RATE SIGNAL: OFF.
Keep up-to-date during the week at Twitter and StockTwits (links below), where a combined 26,202 people are joining in…
SP500 Large Cap Index (click chart to enlarge; SPX, SPY):
Survey Says! Sentiment of individual investors (AAII.com) showed a Bull minus Bear percentage spread of -11.32% vs -7.16% last week. Once again, this is NOT what we expect to see at all time highs in the markets, at which point investors should be excited to own stocks, so despite any dip or correction that may occur, the Bull run is not over.
|Thurs. 12 am close to poll||Bulls 28.30%||Neutrals 32.08%||Bears 39.62%|
2. U.S. Small Caps: I re-entered a small cap position last week, a bit early in market timing terms. The small caps bounced off the top red line in the chart below. We will continue to look for opportunities to “buy low” as this Bull market continues.
Russell 2000 U.S. Small Cap Index (click chart to enlarge; IWM, RUT):
3. Gold: Gold failed another market timing test of the February high. It will likely be “interest rates up and gold down” if Trump succeeds, but if he doesn’t OR if the Fed falls behind on inflation, gold can do well.
Gold ETF (click chart to enlarge the chart; GLD):
4. U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note Yield (TNX): We are testing the lower white line in the market timing triangle yet again. The behavior of the 10 Year Treasury is probably our best “tell” on whether the market believes in “Trump Growth” or not. So far, it’s a big fat “maybe!” “No” would be a market timing move below the magenta line and “Yes” would be a move above the green line.
U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note Yield (click chart to enlarge; TNX, IEF, TYX,TLT,TBF):
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