Market Timing Brief for the 7-24-2015 Close: Stocks Reach First Support. Gold Has A Good Day After a Bad Break. Rates Fall.

A Market Timing Report based on the 7-24-2015 Close, published Sunday July 26th, 2015

I deliver focused comments on the markets.  These are supplemented with “Tweets/StockTwits” (see links below).

1. The Current SP500 Index Chart (SPX, SPX; click to enlarge): The market fell and on Friday stopped where I said it would.  It doesn’t always work out quite so well, but we diligently look for hints for when the market is topping vs. when it’s bottoming, so we can buy and sell appropriately.  They key is: “Buy lower, sell higher.”  Sounds simple?  Well, most investors buy high on greed and sell low in a panic.

Who knows whether we are at the ultimate low in this swing lower?  No one.  But my belief is that we are notably still in a pause, and not in a long term Bear market, that is, until and unless more damage is done.  We want to be buyers lower and sellers higher until the overall game changes from Bull to Bear.  We also want to keep our exposure up fairly high until that game changes.  Some of you will trade the swings more aggressively and if it works, good, but in a Bull market, there’s a risk of being left behind too.   If you sell everything right here for example, what do you do if the market rallies back to the prior high?  Do you and will you buy it all back?  Most individual investors won’t, and delay their buying, feeling they were right and then under-perform the market.

And you may decide to use market timing simply to add old or new cash at smarter spots in the inevitable market swings.

There are a few stocks that are having outsized reactions to earnings, such as Google and more recently, Amazon, but the fact that the market is falling at the same time is of great concern.  Bad breadth it is called.  Investors cling to fewer and fewer stocks near tops.

sp500-market-timing-chart-vs-world-2015-07-24-close

SP500 Index falls from a key resistance line and is searching for support.

Where are we now?  The SP500 would appear to have farther to slip, but there is a support line shown in yellow in the chart below, which could provide a bounce, at least temporarily.  2068 and 2044 are the next levels of support.  Be willing and able to add at lower levels if you can.  (You can check my current exposure level including US/Non-US percentages on Twitter®/StockTwits®.) Remember that what I do, is what I do, and you need to determine your own plan, one that fits you.

(see my messages on Twitter® Follow Me on Twitter®.   Follow Me on StockTwits®).

I do believe the Federal Reserve will navigate us out of the current spot, but the sooner they indicate their hand is off the rate raising button, the better, and the better the market will respond.  Is that “right”?  Not at all.  Quantitative easing represents one of the greatest market manipulating feats that has EVER been attempted by the sheer numerical value of QE.

sp500-market-timing-chart-vs-world-2015-07-24-close-support line

Note the yellow support line (see text).

2. I said last week that small caps not participating in the prior rally was an issue for the overall market.  It is a sign that market participants are starting to doubt less liquid stocks, because the big players cannot get out of them when liquidity dries up.  You can see that there is room to fall one more notch at least before this pullback ends, but there is no guarantee.

Russell 2000 U.S. Small Cap Index (RUT, IWM; click to enlarge):

rut-small-cap-index-market-timing-chart-2015-07-24-close

Failed to make a new high.

3. Gold has been falling like a rock, golden or otherwise.  You can see the major support that was just violated.  At times, a market will bounce back to such a line and then lose momentum, again falling to new lows.  The fuel for a bounce?  On Friday, GLD finally had what is called a Bullish engulfing day, with a lower low and a higher high than the prior day, followed by a close at a new high.

Gold ETF (GLD):

gld-etf-market-timing-chart-2015-07-24-close

Gold finally has a technically positive day.

4. Bond and Treasury yields are falling again.  You see below that we’ve reached a first support level, so it is theoretically possible that the current price will hold, but there is also plenty of room below.  The Fed is going to have to wait to raise rates much longer than is currently expected by market participants.  I believe that is starting to dawn on them, but opinions change gradually.  If the Fed raises rates too soon, which certainly would be any time before the end of the year if not much longer, the U.S. dollar will skyrocket, and U.S. business profits will decline further at a time when the dollar has already rallied and the worldwide economy has already slowed.  The stock market would react negatively to that development.  What we want to see then, is rates staying confined in the range shown on the chart, preferably falling further from here.

U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note (TNX,TYX,TLT,TBF):

tnx-10-year-treasury-note-market-timing-chart-2015-07-24-close

Yields are falling again, which means assets are going back into U.S. Treasuries.

Be sure to visit the website at: Sun and Storm Investing™

Standard Disclaimer: It’s your money and your decision as to how to invest it.

Note that the newsletter is now CLOSED to new subscriptions: Join the Wait List to Join the Newsletter as a Loyal Subscriber, Opening again for the October 4th issue.  If you join and don’t read the newsletter, you will be deleted.  Why?  I don’t publish to non-readers as other newsletters do.  I surround myself with committed people who value what we are doing.  Stay tuned here in the meantime and follow all the action via the Twitter® and StockTwits® links above.

I thank Worden Brothers for the charting system I use to post these charts.  If you want to know more about the charting system I use every day, go to my “Other Resources” page here:  Other Resources   It makes it much easier to follow along with me if you can see the charts and manipulate them on your own computer.  It’s a great investment to have an excellent charting system.  Check it out with a free trial at the link above.

Copyright © 2015 By Wall Street Sun and Storm Report, LLC All rights reserved.

Posted in Bonds, gold, investment, large cap stocks, S&P 500 Index, small cap stocks, Treasuries | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Market Timing Brief for the 7-17-2015 Close: It’s the Same This Time. Small Caps Hesitate with Large Caps On the Line. Gold Breaks. Rates Fall.

A Market Timing Report based on the 7-17-2015 Close, published Sunday July 19th, 2015

I deliver focused comments on the markets.  These are supplemented with “Tweets/StockTwits” (see links below).

1. The SP500 Index has rallied from the recent low on very low volume after Greece was “saved” from itself and the rest of the Eurozone came up with the money to fund the bankrupt nation.  It’s not a convincing rally though!  There is immediate resistance at the high of 2129.87 and then resistance at the prior high.  The NASDAQ is at all time highs, yes, even above the highs of the massive 2000 internet driven bubble.  To celebrate, Google (GOOGL) was up a whopping 16.26% on Friday.  How analysts could be so far off is remarkable with a company of that size.

It’s the same this time. Facebook and other companies like it that have been bid up to astronomical levels based on hype, not earnings will meet Mr. Market’s “reversion to the mean” law one day.  Facebook is now trading at a multiple of Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA of 37.33 vs. the 10.16  value for Apple.  A value of approximately 10 is considered “a deal.”  (EV is the amount of money it would cost to buy the company outright [all shares, plus debt, minus cash] and EBITDA, which eliminates accounting adjustments to earnings, is earnings before adjustments of interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization).  By another measure, price to sales, FB is trading at 18.89 X sales, which Apple trades at 3.49 X sales.  All this data can be found on Yahoo! Finance for FB and for APPL (click the links to view).

The Current SP500 Index Chart (SPX, SPX; click to enlarge): Barely above the bright green trend line with small caps much weaker.

sp500-market-timing-chart-vs-world-2015-07-17-close

Large Caps just barely above a resistance line.

2. Small caps did not participate as vigorously as their larger brethren on this bounce.  That is a strike against this rally.

Russell 2000 U.S. Small Cap Index (RUT, IWM; click to enlarge):

rut-small-cap-index-market-timing-chart-2015-07-17-close

Small caps lag.

3. Gold looks miserable. Gold stocks, seen HERE, are even worse.

Gold ETF (GLD): We hold GLD as currency insurance only, and it won’t help that we have until the dollar weakens on Fed dovishness.  Right now, the U.S. Fed policy is more hawkish than that of other important central banks.  For this reason, we have no trade on for GLD at the moment.

gld-etf-market-timing-chart-2015-07-17-close

Gold is broken and has one last trend line support level shown in yellow.

4. Bond and Treasury yields are finally falling a bit back into the range shown on the chart below.

U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note (TNX,TYX,TLT,TBF): The yield on the 10 Year must break 2.198% to reverse the current trend of higher highs and higher lows.

tnx-10-year-treasury-note-market-timing-chart-2015-07-17-close

Rates falling again.

(see my messages on Twitter® Follow Me on Twitter®.   Follow Me on StockTwits®).

Be sure to visit the website at: Sun and Storm Investing™

Standard Disclaimer: It’s your money and your decision as to how to invest it.

Note that the newsletter is now CLOSED to new subscriptions: Join the Wait List to Join the Newsletter as a Loyal Subscriber, Opening again for the October 4th issue.  If you join and don’t read the newsletter, you will be deleted.  Why?  I don’t publish to non-readers as other newsletters do.  I surround myself with committed people who value what we are doing.  Stay tuned here in the meantime and follow all the action via the Twitter® and StockTwits® links above.

I thank Worden Brothers for the charting system I use to post these charts.  If you want to know more about the charting system I use every day, go to my “Other Resources” page here:  Other Resources   It makes it much easier to follow along with me if you can see the charts and manipulate them on your own computer.  It’s a great investment to have an excellent charting system.  Check it out with a free trial at the link above.

Copyright © 2015 By Wall Street Sun and Storm Report, LLC All rights reserved.

Posted in Bonds, gold, investment, large cap stocks, S&P 500 Index, small cap stocks, Treasuries | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Market Timing Brief for the 7-10-2015 Close: Stocks Slip And Face Earnings Reports. Gold Holds An Important Low. Rates Bounce Despite A Later Lift-off Date.

A Market Timing Report based on the 7-10-2015 Close, published Sunday July 12th, 2015

I deliver focused comments on the markets.  These are supplemented with “Tweets/StockTwits” (see links below).

1. The Greece “resolution” looks messy, meaning billions of dollars messy for Euroland.  The latest report @CNBC said that the Euro zone leaders are close to a compromise deal with Greece.  U.S. futures are down only a bit now (SPX -0.31% vs. fair value per CNBC.com at 11:05 pm ET).  We made a purchase on Thursday July 9th.  Do your best to buy lower, and sell higher in this period of higher volatility.  Do not chase!

2. U.S. corporate earnings are expected to be weak and continue this week in earnest.  Now we see if forward numbers weaken as well.   Those with weak guidance will suffer big moves down in this higher volatility market.

3. Gold came off its low on a successful test.  It is stuck in a range for reasons discussed in detail in the past few weeks.

4. Rates should be coming down (not bouncing UP)  a bit with a Fed now due to delay a rate increase to the “end of the year” per Dr. Yellen.  Per the futures market, it will be the first quarter of 2016.  Either way, the Treasury market seems to require further convincing that rates can stay below 2.5% for a significant period of time, as noted by the bounce in rates at the end of the week.

Now given that summary, view the charts below, and get ready for more volatility…

The Current SP500 Index Chart (SPX, SPX; click to enlarge): A wide consolidation range.

sp500-market-timing-chart-vs-world-2015-07-10-close

Stocks stuck on Greece and wondering about earnings.

Russell 2000 U.S. Small Cap Index (RUT, IWM; click to enlarge):  Note the stronger response of small cap stocks vs. large.  A higher low is forming.

rut-small-cap-index-market-timing-chart-2015-07-10-close

A better bounce than for large caps.

Gold ETF (GLD): Holding as currency insurance only.  No trade at the moment (see comment above).

gld-gold-etf-market-timing-chart-2015-07-10-close

Gold hold a slightly higher low.

U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note (TNX,TYX,TLT,TBF): Bouncing in what is likely a false belief in a hawkish Fed.

tnx-10-year-treasury-note-market-timing-chart-2015-07-10-close

Rates bounce yet again toward resistance.

(see my messages on Twitter®Follow Me on Twitter®.   Follow Me on StockTwits®).

Be sure to visit the website at: Sun and Storm Investing™

Standard Disclaimer: It’s your money and your decision as to how to invest it.

Note that the newsletter is now CLOSED to new subscriptions: Join the Wait List to Join the Newsletter as a Loyal Subscriber, Opening again for the October 4th issue.  If you join and don’t read the newsletter, you will be deleted.  Why?  I don’t publish to non-readers as other newsletters do.  I surround myself with committed people who value what we are doing.  Stay tuned here in the meantime and follow all the action via the Twitter® and StockTwits® links above.

I thank Worden Brothers for the charting system I use to post these charts.  If you want to know more about the charting system I use every day, go to my “Other Resources” page here:  Other Resources   It makes it much easier to follow along with me if you can see the charts and manipulate them on your own computer.  It’s a great investment to have an excellent charting system.  Check it out with a free trial at the link above.

Copyright © 2015 By Wall Street Sun and Storm Report, LLC All rights reserved.

Posted in Bonds, gold, investment, large cap stocks, S&P 500 Index, small cap stocks, Treasuries | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Market Timing Brief for the 7-02-2015 Close: U.S. Stock Markets On Pause. Gold On Its Knees As Rates Peak.

A Market Timing Report based on the 7-02-2015 Close, published Sunday July 5th, 2015

I deliver focused comments on the markets.  These are supplemented with “Tweets/StockTwits” (see links below).

1. The Greek default (that already happened this week with the added current threat of a NO vote of the Eurozone offer in the referendum today) has our markets on edge, but what really has them on edge are the soft earnings to come in the next few weeks starting this Wednesday, July 8th.  Realize that Greece is just a distraction to the U.S., as even the European banks do not have most of the exposure to their debt default.  The big institutions have taken on the bad debt to insulate the banks at the expense of others.  This does not say that everything will be find and dandy if Greece goes fully belly up.

The U.S. large and small caps are at support levels, which may only hold for temporary relief bounces, followed by a deeper correction.  The employment figures were moderately strong and the consumer is still fairly happy, so the Bulls say the market has further to go to the upside this year.  (I am fully invested at the moment, but less leveraged to cash than previously, meaning I sell some higher as a practice, and deploy excess cash when the market pulls back to provide a discount – buy lower, sell higher.  You  cannot always catch the exact low, because guessing at that can be dangerous.  It’s also best not to chase markets on strong days; instead, buy them on pullbacks in the Bull move.  We are now getting such a pullback.  How deep it will go is unknown.  I suggest saving some cash for lower lows than the Thursday close.

2.   Gold did NOT respond to Greece and the potential trouble for the Euro, which is negative.  We are on the sidelines as far as a gold trade goes.  If you have no exposure to gold (we are using it as insurance against the U.S. dollar and our Fed’s demonstrated intention to debase our currency in support of “full employment” of course), the best set-up is to add GLD here and toward the deeper lows (109.67-109.77) and sell if there is a significant breach of that low.

3. Interest rates should remain range bound for a while longer given the slowing of Europe and China in recent numbers as well as in the slowing of U.S. profitability.  You could buy near this low in TLT for example, and sell it if it does not hold.  If our economy starts to pick up more strongly, stocks will resume their rally, rates will rise, and gold will be under pressure.

Now view the charts below…

The Current SP500 Index Chart (SPX, SPX; click to enlarge):

sp500-index-market-timing-chart-2015-07-02-close

Summer High In?

Russell 2000 U.S. Small Cap Index (RUT, IWM; click to enlarge):  Nope. They broke down along with the large caps that led the selling. On some support as you see below.

rut-small-cap-index-market-timing-chart-2015-07-02-close

Small caps do NOT maintain their breakout and fall with large caps.

Gold ETF (GLD): Holding as currency insurance only.  No trade at the moment (see comment above).

gld-gold-etf-market-timing-chart-2015-07-02-close

Gold slumps as rates form a peak and oil eases from high.

U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note (TNX,TYX,TLT,TBF): A rate top COULD be in, so now we descend into the range of 1.65% to 2.5%.  What would change this?  A stronger economic recovery.  That could push us to 3% again.

(see my messages on Twitter®Follow Me on Twitter®.   Follow Me on StockTwits®).

tnx-10-year-treasury-note-market-timing-chart-2015-07-02-close

Have rates peaked? Will they now move back toward the lower end of the range?

Be sure to visit the website at: Sun and Storm Investing™

Standard Disclaimer: It’s your money and your decision as to how to invest it.

Note that the newsletter is now CLOSED to new subscriptions: Join the Wait List to Join the Newsletter as a Loyal Subscriber, Opening again for the October 4th issue.  If you join and don’t read the newsletter, you will be deleted.  Why?  I don’t publish to non-readers as other newsletters do.  I surround myself with committed people who value what we are doing.  Stay tuned here in the meantime and follow all the action via the Twitter® and StockTwits® links above.

I thank Worden Brothers for the charting system I use to post these charts.  If you want to know more about the charting system I use every day, go to my “Other Resources” page here:  Other Resources   It makes it much easier to follow along with me if you can see the charts and manipulate them on your own computer.  It’s a great investment to have an excellent charting system.  Check it out with a free trial at the link above.

Copyright © 2015 By Wall Street Sun and Storm Report, LLC All rights reserved.

Posted in Bonds, gold, investment, large cap stocks, S&P 500 Index, small cap stocks, Treasuries | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Market Timing Brief for the 6-19-2015 Close with UPDATE: SP500 Fails At Resistance, but Small Caps Hold Up. Gold and Treasuries Like the Fed Comments.

A Market Timing Report based on the 6-19-2015 Close, published Sunday June 21st, 2015

I deliver focused comments on the markets.  These are supplemented with “Tweets/StockTwits” (see links below).

UPDATE 6-28-2015 (10:58 p.m.):  The U.S. future markets are down 1.23% or so vs. fair value per CNBC.com due to failure of the Greek government to work out a deal with the Eurozone and IMF, which will lead to a Greek default.  The Europeans will have to clean this up within a few hours on Monday morning or the SP500 will be testing one of the lower red lines on the chart below:

sp500-index-market-timing-chart-2015-06-26-close

SP500 Under Greek Threat Tonight Going Into Monday. Buying Opportunity Coming?

The Russell 2000 is back testing the last breakout line on the chart below, and is down 1.13% vs. fair value per CNBC.com.  Gold is testing a higher low on the chart, and bounced a bit to $1182/oz. on Greece, and rates re-topped last week but fell after the Greek news.  The U.S. 10 Year Treasury is at 2.3206% per CNBC.com at the moment.  This too shall pass, so be prepared to buy more at better prices, unless the Europeans clean it up before we are fully awake.  Greece will hurt the Euro longer term, but commerce won’t stop because of it.   The Euro is selling off further: Read More

There will be a new monthly issue out next weekend, available only to those who subscribe at the link below…for loyal subscribers only.  ; )

…And now back to my summary from last week, which still gives you the lay of the land for the U.S. 

Please read my Twitter comments to the right.

1. The Fed became more dovish during their meeting this week.  Because of that the Fed will likely raise rates in December, not in September as many are guessing.  They will not raise in September, because earnings look lousy through the end of the year.  They may not wait until 2016, simply to save face.  The Fed has raised rates simply by scaring the market and then not raising them.  Very cute.

2. The Fed will then only raise rates once or twice and stop.  More would tank the economy.  Earnings will be awful through the end of the year.

3. Inflation will be tame, so although gold will hold up based on central banking abuses, it will not go to the moon either.  We keep gold as currency insurance only at the moment.  Real rates have to fall further for gold to flourish.  As rates decline, gold should benefit if you are trading it and willing to sell higher.

4. Rates will continue down a bit, but they will also remain range bound, due to the Fed’s insistence that the economy is recovering.  We’ll probably do better trading the range than simply holding Treasuries into 2016.  Beyond that, no one knows and if they say they know, ignore them.  They are liars.  It’s ALL guesswork, even what I just wrote.  Short term guesses are generally more valuable than long term guesses.  Long term guesses cause market players to do stupid things like “sell everything now!”  The newsletters that preach those things are users who simply seek to make money off of the average investor’s fears.

5. Please read my comments from the update under last week’s blog post.  The SPX is now below the green line and the small caps are still levitated.  The Russell 2000 must reverse at the high as well for the market to go into a steeper pullback.

SP500 Index Chart (SPX, SPY): (Please click to enlarge it)

Coming down?

sp500-index-market-timing-chart-2015-06-19-close

Russell 2000 U.S. Small Cap Index (RUT, IWM; click to enlarge):  If they don’t break, large caps will recover to new highs as well.

rut-small-cap-index-market-timing-chart-2015-06-19-close

Small caps are beating large caps at the moment. If they keep rallying, large caps will follow.

Gold ETF (GLD): Holding as currency insurance only.  No trade currently.

gld-gold-etf-market-timing-chart-2015-06-19-close

Gold pops on Fed comments that they will raise rates slowly and later than they had planned.

U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note (TNX,TYX,TLT,TBF): Treasuries did get a further bid based on Fed dovishness this week.  Good news for the housing market.

(see my messages on Twitter®Follow Me on Twitter®.   Follow Me on StockTwits®).

tnx-10-year-treasury-note-market-timing-chart-2015-06-19-close

Rates keep falling post-dovish Fed comments.

Be sure to visit the website at: Sun and Storm Investing™

Standard Disclaimer: It’s your money and your decision as to how to invest it.

Note that the newsletter is now closed again to new subscriptions: Join the Wait List to Join the Newsletter as a Loyal Subscriber, Opening again for the July 5th issue.  If you join and don’t read the newsletter, you will be deleted.  I don’t publish to non-readers as other newsletters do.  Stay tuned here in the meantime and follow all the action via the Twitter® and StockTwits® links above.

I thank Worden Brothers for the charting system I use to post these charts.  If you want to know more about the charting system I use every day, go to my “Other Resources” page here:  Other Resources   It makes it much easier to follow along with me if you can see the charts and manipulate them on your own computer.  It’s a great investment to have an excellent charting system.  Check it out with a free trial at the link above.

Copyright © 2015 By Wall Street Sun and Storm Report, LLC All rights reserved.

Posted in Bonds, gold, investment, large cap stocks, S&P 500 Index, small cap stocks, Treasuries | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Market Timing Brief for the 6-12-2015 Close: Weakness in Stocks and Gold. Rates Finally Ease a Bit.

A Market Timing Report based on the 6-12-2015 Close, published Sunday June 14th, 2015

I deliver focused comments on the markets.  These are supplemented with “Tweets/StockTwits” (see links below).

UPDATE 6-18-2015 11:40 am

The Fed held interest rates steady this week, but Dr. Yellen indicated that a rate increase was likely in the second half of the year (see my Twitter comments to right).  The economy has clearly slowed in the U.S. with a negative GDP, which means negative growth, in Q1 and Q2 is not looking good either.  The Fed expects the second half of the year to save GDP for the year, seeing it now 0.5% lower than before at 1.8-2.0% (central tendency as they call it).

I think we’ll be trading up and down until the data tell us which way the economy is going and when we see if there is any response by the Fed.  If the Fed simply raises rates despite extreme sluggishness in the economy, the SP500 will sell off significantly (at least a 10% correction for a Fed error).  The Fed acts as though it won’t matter when they raise interest rates off zero, because the trajectory of rates will be slow, but the bond market is not as certain of that.  The U.S. stock market (plus Europe mainly) is strong following the Fed meeting, but just above resistance as the chart shows.  The current economic data are not strong enough to warrant new highs in the SP500 Index, but if market participants believe the Fed’s 2015 recovery scenario for the second half, the stock market may lead the economy to the upside and pull off another strong year.  Growth had better appear stronger by September (end of Q3):

sp500-index-market-timing-chart-2015-06-18-1139am

Up and over or do we pause here?

And now back to the prior blog post with details on recent economic figures:

Retail sales minus gas/autos were just slightly better than the 0.5% expected at 0.7% month over month, and 1.2% vs. 1.3% expected with gas/autos included (per Bloomberg News).  Investor sentiment showed Bears climbing in numbers with only 20.04% Bulls, 47.38% Neutral, and 32.58% Bears, with a spread of -12.54% (Bulls-Bears; from AAII.com).  That spread number does not auger well for gains, even if they come.  They are likely to be given back into or during the next earnings season, unless forward guidance is strongly positive to make up for the slow start to this fiscal year.  Be advised that sometimes strong rallies appear at the current Bull-Bear spread, but the gains vanish over a period of months after achieved.  The high neutral readings we’ve been seeing for weeks are positive for a point 6 months out as I’ve explained HERE.

The short term looks “iffy,” but the Bulls will likely prevail in time as the world muddles through the current slowdown.  Fed uncertainty continues to be a cloud over the market.  Will they raise in September or not?  How much?  Once and done or will there be a series of raises that might force the economy into recession?  Markets despise uncertainty and often reflect it with sloppy, more volatile trading (ups and downs).

SP500 Index Chart (SPX, SPY): (Please click to enlarge it)  Weak with a lower high below the green line shown.  If the market can recover back above the green line quickly, there’s much more hope for a rally, lasting at least a few weeks or months.

SP500 Coming Back Down

SP500 Coming Back Down

Russell 2000 U.S. Small Cap Index (RUT, IWM): Small caps just below a significant high too (please click to enlarge).  Moving back above the green line would be very Bullish.

rut-small-cap-index-market-timing-chart-2015-06-12-close

Small caps topped out too for a bit?

Gold ETF (GLD): Holding as currency insurance only.  No trade currently.

gld-gold-etf-market-timing-chart-2015-06-12-close

Gold remains in range, going no where for now, but with technical and fundamental support.

U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note (TNX,TYX,TLT,TBF): Treasuries finally caught a bid, but we need more follow-through this week!  Needs to stay below that April high of 2.407% (24.00 on the chart below = 2.400%).

(see my messages on Twitter®Follow Me on Twitter®.   Follow Me on StockTwits®).

tnx-10-year-treasury-note-market-timing-chart-2015-06-12-close

Rates finally ease after a long fear driven run up.

Be sure to visit the website at: Sun and Storm Investing™

Standard Disclaimer: It’s your money and your decision as to how to invest it.

Note that the newsletter is now closed again to new subscriptions: Join the Wait List to Join the Newsletter as a Loyal Subscriber, Opening again for the July 5th issue.  If you join and don’t read the newsletter, you will be deleted.  I don’t publish to non-readers as other newsletters do.  Stay tuned here in the meantime and follow all the action via the Twitter® and StockTwits® links above.

I thank Worden Brothers for the charting system I use to post these charts.  If you want to know more about the charting system I use every day, go to my “Other Resources” page here:  Other Resources   It makes it much easier to follow along with me if you can see the charts and manipulate them on your own computer.  It’s a great investment to have an excellent charting system.  Check it out with a free trial at the link above.

Copyright © 2015 By Wall Street Sun and Storm Report, LLC All rights reserved.

Posted in Bonds, gold, investment, large cap stocks, S&P 500 Index, small cap stocks, Treasuries | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Market Timing Brief for the 6-05-2015 Close: Stay with the Innovators. Dollar Surges Helping Small Caps. Gold Falls As Rates Shoot Up.

A Market Timing Report based on the 6-05-2015 Close, published Sunday June 7th, 2015

I deliver focused comments on the markets.  These are supplemented with “Tweets/StockTwits” (see links below).

The SP500 Index dropped just a bit on Friday after the employment number hit 280,000 vs. the 220-225K expected.  Recovery should be good for the markets.  Earnings go up and stock prices rise in step with them.  That’s a healthy recovery.  If the market does not go up over the next few weeks, something is wrong with this recovery.

The Federal Reserve induced excesses may be to blame.  Raising interest rates this cycle may cause greater volatility than we’ve experienced before as market participants including stockholders and companies themselves have become addicted to cheap loans.  Just consider the billions of buybacks that companies have undertaken with cheaply borrowed dollars.  These purchases have raised stock prices in an unnatural way.

Normally innovation leads to strong earnings which in turn lead to the rising stock price of a great company.  At least that is the best sort of company to lead in a market.  Cheap money twists the game and distorts the system from the ideal.  The consequence will be that some companies that have been using funny money instead of innovation to advance their stock such as IBM will be major victims of Federal Reserve tightening.  Here is the key to successful investing over the next few years (it will always keep you ahead, but it’s now more important than ever as Fed interest rates rise off zero): Stay with the true innovators.

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Small dip or something more?

Russell 2000 U.S. Small Cap Index (RUT, IWM): Small caps are holding up well despite being vastly overvalued.  Got a boost from US dollar strength after the employment numbers.

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Small caps get a boost on Friday from a dollar move UP.

Gold ETF (GLD): Gold is slipping on the big boost in interest rates this week.  Hold as insurance only.

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Gold falls with rates rising this past week.

U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note (TNX,TYX,TLT,TBF): Employment was strong over the past month, so rates shot up.  They are right at resistance and unless the economy is going straight up from here, rates should decline.  For bond holders, NOW would be nice, or the selling will accelerate further.  (see my messages on Twitter®Follow Me on Twitter®.   Follow Me on StockTwits®).

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Rates blast off. Have they stopped at the prior high?

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