Market Timing Brief for the SP500 Index Close on 4-11-2014: Failed Breakout Leads to a Corrrection. How Low?

A Market Timing Report based on the 4-11-2014 Close, published Sunday April 13, 2014

The SP500 Index (SPX, SPY) fell following a failed breakout to new 2014 highs.  Markets often test higher levels in that manner, though they don’t always fall of course!  When not enough buyers are there to take a stock or index to higher and higher highs, the market falls back through prior resistance and heads lower.

We are now at one of the support levels pointed out last Sunday with the major channel line (yellow) just below.  If that does not hold, it would suggest a worsening of the market’s character, and we may see a much more sizable correction.  Be prepared to protect your profits at some point.  For example, we’ve already sold 75% of our U.S. small cap exposure.   Of course, follow your own plan, but riding this market down 25-30%, if that happens, is something that you may not want to do.

Immediate support is at SPX 1813.55 (11-29 high), 1804 and 1768.  Since we are at support right here, selling right at the Friday close would not make much sense.

As mentioned in prior posts, I generally recommend selling in steps unless there is a major event to deal with such as the Japanese tsunami.  Then it’s advisable to get out immediately as the market often freezes up for a day or at least the following morning as if to pay its respects.

Do NOT sell if you are not willing to re-enter the market however.  That is how many lost huge amounts of money during the 2008-2009 decline.  They sold at the bottom and never changed their mind about stocks.  Not a good strategy.

Most of the data hinted that sentiment was setting us up for less of a pullback than we’ve seen, at least on an immediate basis, but there was one instance that showed a similar sentiment pattern where that was not the case.  You can read that and about what our allocation is to each major index that we follow here as well as where we’ll peel off some more exposure:  Free Subscription to My Newsletter and access to my latest comments/strategy  I’ll send you back the password to the access page and the weekly newsletter in the same email.

Here’s the SP500 Index Chart (click to enlarge):

sp500-index-market-timing-chart-2014-04-11-close

SP500 Index is nearly at critical support.

Standard Disclaimer: It’s your money and your decision as to how to invest it.

I also comment regularly on Twitter: Follow Me on Twitter

I thank Worden Brothers for the chart system I use to post these charts.  If you want to know more about the charting system I use every day, go to my “Other Resources” page here:  Other Resources   It makes it much easier to follow along with me if you can see the charts and manipulate them on your own computer, so it’s a great investment to have an excellent charting system.

Look for updates this week as needed via Twitter.

Copyright © 2014 By Wall Street Sun and Storm Report, LLC All rights reserved.

Posted in investment, large cap stocks, S&P 500 Index | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

Market Timing Brief for the Gold ETF (GLD) and 10 Year Treasury Yield (TNX) Closes On 4-11-2014: Gold Has Formed a Higher Low (Bullish!). But Rates May Have Bottomed.

A Market Timing Report based on the 4-11-2014 Close published Sunday April 13, 2014

Gold has successfully formed a higher low, so the rally is on for now.  Due to the fact that the 10 Year Treasury Note yield is near the bottom of its recent range (see chart below), gold may now face a head wind (rising rates and a stronger US dollar).  What would help gold is if the world started to buy more gold in a panic scenario in which the dollar would rally, driving down Treasury yields and driving up the price of gold as well as silver.  There may be some of that buying happening already.  It’s certainly been a good trade for 2014 whatever the cause(s).

Economic growth was supposed to gradually drive up rates according to the Fed and thereby strengthen the U.S. dollar as higher rates attract money into the currency.  But instead the dollar has fallen as rates have fallen and economic growth appears to be slowing adding further to deflationary pressure, which is good for gold, silver, other precious metals, and commodities.  We are in all those trades for now with more in gold and commodities than in silver, which has been acting poorly.  To keep up with my latest strategy on gold and interest rates on my private access page, you’ll need the password, which you can get here at no charge (there is MUCH more on that page on all 18 major indices I follow with percent allocations given for our model portfolio): Free Subscription to My Newsletter and WSSSR Access Page

GLD chart:

gld-gold-etf-market-timing-chart-2014-04-11-close

Gold has formed a higher low.

Ten Year Treasury Note Yield Chart (TNX, TLT, TBT):

tnx-10-year-treasury-note-market-timing-chart-2014-04-11-close

The 10 Year Treasury Yield is at the low end of the recent range.

Standard Disclaimer: It’s your money and your decision as to how to invest it.

Follow Me on Twitter Here

I thank Worden Brothers for the chart system I use to post these charts.  If you want to know more about the charting system I use every day, go to my “Other Resources” page here:  Other Resources   It makes it much easier to follow along with me if you can see the charts and manipulate them on your own computer, so it’s a great investment to have an excellent charting system.

Look for updates on the main chart tracking pages this week as I feel they are needed and comments via Twitter @SunAndStormInv (see link to upper right).

Copyright © 2014 By Wall Street Sun and Storm Report, LLC All rights reserved.

Posted in Bonds, gold, investment, metals, Treasuries | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

Market Timing Brief for the SP500 Index Close on 4-04-2014: Now a Failed Breakout

A Market Timing Report based on the 4-04-2014 Close, published Sunday April 6, 2014

The SP500 Index (SPX, SPY) broke out after Dr. Yellen jawboned on monetary policy and then the market gave it all back, failing a breakout as shown on the chart.

Here’s the SP500 Index Chart (click to enlarge):

SP500 Index having a hard time making and holding a new high.  This is a failed breakout.

SP500 Index having a hard time making and holding a new high. This is a failed breakout.

This is not a significant SELL signal with our longer term perspective here, but it’s an opportunity for short term traders and also for shorts attacking Facebook (FB) and grossly overvalued stocks like it.  

You can see that there are numerous support levels to which it could retreat.  My sentiment analysis gives us some insight into the depth of the next move upon considering this week’s and last week’s data and is found in the free issue here:

 Free Subscription to My Newsletter and access to my latest comments  I’ll send you back the password to the access page and the monthly newsletter in the same email.

Standard Disclaimer: It’s your money and your decision as to how to invest it.

I also comment regularly on Twitter: Follow Me on Twitter

I thank Worden Brothers for the chart system I use to post these charts.  If you want to know more about the charting system I use every day, go to my “Other Resources” page here:  Other Resources   It makes it much easier to follow along with me if you can see the charts and manipulate them on your own computer, so it’s a great investment to have an excellent charting system.

Look for updates this week as needed via Twitter.

Copyright © 2014 By Wall Street Sun and Storm Report, LLC All rights reserved.

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Market Timing Brief for the Gold ETF (GLD) and 10 Year Treasury Yield (TNX) Closes On 4-04-2014: Gold Limps Off a Higher Low. Rates Hold Their Range.

A Market Timing Report based on the 4-04-2014 Close published Sunday April 6, 2014

Gold finally rallied back enough that we could see a new leg up now.  The pullback tried the weak hands, and kept in the more convicted traders and investors.  But gold must maintain its momentum this week.  The first resistance level is the 50 day moving average.   And the chart below the gold chart shows that interest rates are supportive of gold moving up.  

This fall in rates means the US dollar may not hold onto its new found strength.  The only time the dollar tends to rally with gold over significant time periods are during times of panic in the world’s financial markets.  Rates go down at the same time as investors pour into Treasuries.  On Friday, that is not what happened (rates were down but the dollar was down as well and gold rallied.)  The “Friday” scenario is good for gold.  See my free issue for the rest of my signals (link below).

GLD chart:

gld-gold-etf-market-timing-chart-2014-04-04-close

Gold catches some support and could rally now.

Ten Year Treasury Note Yield Chart (TNX, TLT, TBT):

tnx-10-year-treasury-note-market-timing-chart-2014-04-04-close

10 Year Treasury Note stays in range.

To keep up with my latest thoughts on gold and interest rates on my access page, you’ll need the password, which you can get here (there is MUCH more on that page on all 18 major indices I follow):

Free Subscription to My Newsletter and WSSSR Access Page

Standard Disclaimer: It’s your money and your decision as to how to invest it.

Follow Me on Twitter Here

I thank Worden Brothers for the chart system I use to post these charts.  If you want to know more about the charting system I use every day, go to my “Other Resources” page here:  Other Resources   It makes it much easier to follow along with me if you can see the charts and manipulate them on your own computer, so it’s a great investment to have an excellent charting system.

Look for updates on the main chart tracking pages this week as I feel they are needed and comments via Twitter @SunAndStormInv (see link to upper right).

Copyright © 2014 By Wall Street Sun and Storm Report, LLC All rights reserved.

Posted in Bonds, gold, investment, metals, Treasuries | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

Market Timing Brief for the SP500 Index Close on 3-28-2014: Still No Breakout

A Market Timing Report based on the 3-28-2014 Close published Saturday March 30, 2014

The SP500 Index (SPX, SPY) failed again to break out this past week.
Eventually an index must make a new high or it will tend to descend to the next new low.  First, let’s look at the chart.

Here’s the SP500 Index Chart (click to enlarge):

sp500-index-market-timing-chart-2014-03-28-close

SP500 Index has not been able to break out.

As discussed last week (see link to upper right), the SPX has been positively correlated with the yield on the 10 Year Treasury Index.  Rates down, market down.  A healthy economy is supposed to result in higher rates, because the Fed can stop printing fake money.  When the economy is suspect, rates fall in anticipation of more Fed action or slower QE or a Fed funds rate of near zero out into the distant lala-land of a future they are building for us.

Note that there is NO sell signal on the index in my opinion, unless you’ve been shorting every attempt near the top and buying the lows.  But considering the sentiment analysis I did this past Thursday, I now favor a further downturn. 

How low?  Mildly to moderately, but it’s best to read it.  You can access the work as well as my exposure levels to each index after getting the password here: Free Subscription to My Newsletter and access to my latest comments  I’ll send you back the password to the access page and the monthly newsletter in the same email.

Standard Disclaimer: It’s your money and your decision as to how to invest it.

I also comment regularly on Twitter: Follow Me on Twitter

I thank Worden Brothers for the chart system I use to post these charts.  If you want to know more about the charting system I use every day, go to my “Other Resources” page here:  Other Resources   It makes it much easier to follow along with me if you can see the charts and manipulate them on your own computer, so it’s a great investment to have an excellent charting system.

Look for updates this week as needed via Twitter.

Copyright © 2014 By Wall Street Sun and Storm Report, LLC All rights reserved.

Posted in investment, large cap stocks, S&P 500 Index | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

Market Timing Brief for the Gold ETF (GLD) and 10 Year Treasury Yield (TNX) Closes On 3-28-2014: Gold Testing Below Support. Rates Ease.

A Market Timing Report based on the 3-28-2014 Close published Sunday March 30, 2014

Gold failed to respond to falling interest rates.  Yes, the yield on the 10 Year Treasury fell this week well into the tight range it has been hovering in.  But gold did not break that badly – yet.   It slumped a bit more for sure and is testing below some obvious support levels, namely the 50 and 200 day moving averages.  It needs to rally soon or there will be much more damage to the price of gold.

GLD chart:

gld-gold-etf-market-timing-chart-2014-03-28-close

Gold slipping, testing below support.

Ten Year Treasury Note Yield Chart (TNX, TLT, TBT):

tnx-10-year-treasury-note-market-timing-chart-2014-03-28-close

10 Year Treasury Note Yield eases back. And gold does not respond.

To keep up with my latest thoughts on gold and interest rates on my access page, you’ll need the password, which you can get here (there is MUCH more on that page on all 18 major indices I follow):

Free Subscription to My Newsletter and WSSSR Access Page

Standard Disclaimer: It’s your money and your decision as to how to invest it.

Follow Me on Twitter Here

I thank Worden Brothers for the chart system I use to post these charts.  If you want to know more about the charting system I use every day, go to my “Other Resources” page here:  Other Resources   It makes it much easier to follow along with me if you can see the charts and manipulate them on your own computer, so it’s a great investment to have an excellent charting system.

Look for updates on the main chart tracking pages this week as I feel they are needed and comments via Twitter @SunAndStormInv (see link to upper right).

Copyright © 2014 By Wall Street Sun and Storm Report, LLC All rights reserved.

Posted in Bonds, gold, investment, metals, Treasuries | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

Market Timing Brief for the Gold ETF (GLD) and 10 Year Treasury Yield (TNX) Closes On 3-21-2014: Falling Rates Will Drive the Next Leg Up in Gold

A Market Timing Report based on the 3-21-2014 Close published Sunday March 23, 2014

UPDATE 3-24-2014 @ 8:42 pm: GLD is testing below the 1st support level (red line) shown on the chart below.  Not optimal for the rally, but the 50 day moving average would be the next test at about 125.19.  Below there we’d see much more damage and potentially the end of the rally. 

TNX, the 10 Year yield is retesting the prior minor high, and that high needs to hold.  If not, gold will likely continue to fall.

Gold did some front running of the Fed statement and began selling off as the 10 Year Treasury yield also rose prior to the statement.  The dance is perfectly choreographed.  By the time the post-Fed reaction hit the fan, rates had already bumped up against resistance.  Now they could have gone straight up from there, but they didn’t.  In fact, rates fell on Friday and gold rallied right on cue.

Check out the two charts below.  Chartwise this is a set-up for the next leg up for the gold Bull market of 2014.  Read the caveats from last week to know what could end the party prematurely.  But for now, it’s a Bull that simply pulled back to support.  Below support, that next red support line comes into play.  And if you see rates blast through obvious resistance just overhead, gold will suffer.

GLD chart:

gld-gold-etf-market-timing-chart-2014-03-21-close

Gold Pulls Back but is Set Up for Next Rally

Ten Year Treasury Note Yield Chart (TNX, TLT, TBT):

tnx-10-year-treasury-note-market-timing-chart-2014-03-21-close

Rates Rise Abruptly Post-Fed Statement, but Then Fall

To keep up with my latest thoughts on gold and interest rates on my access page, you’ll need the password, which you can get here (there is MUCH more on that page on all 12 major indices I follow):

Free Subscription to My Newsletter and WSSSR Access Page

Standard Disclaimer: It’s your money and your decision as to how to invest it.

Follow Me on Twitter Here

I thank Worden Brothers for the chart system I use to post these charts.  If you want to know more about the charting system I use every day, go to my “Other Resources” page here:  Other Resources   It makes it much easier to follow along with me if you can see the charts and manipulate them on your own computer, so it’s a great investment to have an excellent charting system.

Look for updates on the main chart tracking pages this week as I feel they are needed and comments via Twitter @SunAndStormInv (see link to upper right).

Copyright © 2014 By Wall Street Sun and Storm Report, LLC All rights reserved.

Posted in Bonds, gold, investment, metals, Treasuries | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment