Sun and Storm Investing Market Timing Blog™

Market Timing Brief™ for the 7-01-2016 Close: SP500 Index Bounces Hard Post-Brexit. Gold Takes Off Further as Rates Retest a Major Low.

Posted on July 3, 2016 by David Durand

A Market Timing Report based on the 7-01-2016 Close, published Sunday July 3rd, 2016

I deliver focused comments on the markets. These are supplemented with “Tweets/StockTwits” (see links below).

1. SP500 Index: When you have a bounce as rapid as the one we saw post-Brexit, there is a risk of a pullback. It may only be a shallow one; however, be careful of individual stock risk going into earnings season. Stocks that don’t meet expectations of either earnings and/or guidance will be more severely punished than usual.

SP500 Large Cap Index (click chart to enlarge; SPX, SPY):

sp500-index-spx-market-timing-chart-2016-07-01-close

Rapid bounce means we could see a pullback or a pause at best.

Survey Says! Sentiment this week among individual investors (AAII.com) showed a Bull minus Bear percentage spread at minus 4.51% this past Wednesday (Bulls 28.91% and Bears 33.42% with Neutrals at 37.67% [over 40% Neutrals is Bullish for market timing 6 months out]). Sentiment is not particularly helpful at these levels, as there is plenty of room for it to be pushed in either direction by the news flow; however, it certainly does not reflect the sentiment we would see at a top. Investors should be cheering stocks near prior highs. There is hesitation in the negative spread. Investors are expecting a pullback.

Please keep up to date at Twitter and StockTwits: See my messages on Twitter® Follow Me on Twitter®. Follow Me on StockTwits®).

2. U.S. Small Caps: Caution is advised going into earnings as small caps are more volatile than large caps. The name for that risk is “beta.” Beta works for you when stocks are rising and against you when stocks fall.

We bought some mid-caps recently, because their beta is lower than small caps and their earnings have been better. The top of this bounce is not a good time to add to such a position. Why go mid vs. small? You can see on my Twitter home page (above link) that the mid caps have nearly matched the performance of small cap stocks during the recent rise from the February low.

Russell 2000 U.S. Small Cap Index (click chart to enlarge; RUT, IWM):

rut-small cap-index-market-timing-chart-2016-07-01-close

U.S. Small Cap stocks rise to the April high.

3. Gold: Gold continues to serve us well as rates stay very low in the U.S. and foreign rates remain negative. Financial institutions are going to be in deep trouble over time as the entire insurance industry depends on positive rates for survival. If their stock returns go negative, they will be in even worse trouble.

Gold comes with a warning sticker: If the economy begins to improve allowing for a rise in earnings, be careful of being overexposed to gold. Gold makes investors nothing and does not do well against that kind of competition. Rates will rise if the economy improves, which also stiffens competition.

If you did not listen to me back in January, listen now. Don’t buy the rips, buy the dips. And remember the caveat from above: There could be a more substantial pullback in gold, if some of earnings season turns out better than expected.

Gold ETF (click chart to enlarge the chart; GLD):

gld-etf-market-timing-chart-2016-07-01-close

Gold continues skyward, but be cautious about chasing it. Buy pullbacks.

4. U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note Yield (TNX): We’ve had a bounce off the prior major low, yes, but rates could be pulled still lower as rates abroad drop even more. This is NOT a good thing in the end, because it means that the economy of the world is becoming addicted to easy money and is not growing of its own accord.

That said, don’t think that rates will necessarily correct higher and NOT make brand new lows below the 2012 low. No one thought we’d see negative rates in Europe and we have.

U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note Yield (click chart to enlarge; TNX,TYX,TLT,TBF):

tnx-10-year-treasury-note-market-timing-chart-2016-07-01-close

Rates plunge post-Brexit and bounce from 2012 low…for now…

Stay with me throughout the week for the LATEST via the links to Twitter/StockTwits above. Feel free to comment, retweet etc. to spread the word.

Be sure to visit the website for more general investing knowledge at:

Sun and Storm Investing™

Standard Disclaimer: It’s your money and your decision as to how to invest it.

I thank Worden Brothers for the charting system I use to post these charts. If you want to know more about the charting system I use every day, go to my “Other Resources” page here: Other Resources It makes it much easier to follow along with me if you can see the charts and manipulate them on your own computer. It’s a great investment to have an excellent charting system. Check it out with a free trial at the link above.

Note that the newsletter is now CLOSED to new subscriptions: Join the Wait List to Join the Newsletter as a Loyal Subscriber, Opening again for the July 3rd issue. If you join and don’t read the newsletter, you will be deleted. Why? I don’t publish to non-readers as other newsletters do. I surround myself with committed people who value what we are doing. Stay tuned here in the meantime and follow all the action via the Twitter® and StockTwits® links above.

Posted in Bonds, federal reserve, gold, investment, investor sentiment, large cap stocks, S&P 500 Index, small cap stocks, Treasuries | Tagged 10 year treasury, aaii sentiment survey, aaii survey, Brexit, federal reserve, gld, gold etf, investor sentiment, iwm, market timing, rut, sp500 index, spx, spy, survey says, tlt, tnx | Leave a comment

Market Timing Brief™ for the 6-24-2016 Close (6-30-2016 UPDATE): SP500 Takes a Brexit Hit. Gold Spikes as Rates Retest Prior Low and Bounce.

Posted on June 26, 2016 by David Durand

A Market Timing Report based on the 6-24-2016 Close, published Sunday June 26th, 2016

I deliver focused comments on the markets. These are supplemented with “Tweets/StockTwits” (see links below).

UPDATE 6-30-2016 after the close: Now that we’ve reached the realm of the target I had in mind for this bounce (see Twitter/StockTwits links below), what do our market timing parameters tell us?

1. As just tweeted, the rise in the SP500 Index has been a bit too fast. Fast up often leads to fast down or at least to a correction.

2. What does the volatility index say? Is there room for fear to fall much? Yes, as you see below the VIX has room to fall further (the blue haze represents a plot of the Bollinger Bands for the VIX, which gives us an idea of the potential movement in both directions):

vix-volatility-index-market-timing-chart-2016-06-30-close

Room to fall further even if there is a pullback.

3. Given the whippy move in the markets over the past 3 days in our climb from the first Brexit low (see that here: Hard Bounce UP, I would lean toward there being some sort of correction of at least 1/3 to up to 2/3’s of the rise we’ve seen. That said, I believe a 2/3’s correction would bring us back to prior lows or lower. The market is a bit jittery still.

If you are Bearish, now’s the time to scale out of some exposure and then scale out of more if we should go still higher.

Remember that the VIX tells us there is room for fear to fall, which means the conversion of more Bears to Bulls. Investors have not fully calmed their nerves yet, which can propel the market higher. It also means that they are overly sensitive to negative news cropping up around Brexit.

Conclusion: Given the rapid ascent, my favored scenario would be a 1/3rd pullback followed by a push to prior highs. Check my exposure levels on the social media feeds (links below), and consider how you will adjust yours in way that fits your own investing/trading plan and your beliefs about the market and economy.

Returning to my comments that preceded the Monday slide…

1. SP500 Index: There is no way to do market timing of certain events such as Brexit, which was unexpected by most of the market, but we could have had and did have positions that hedged our stocks such as a large gold as well as a large bond exposure through municipal bonds. We also were not overly leveraged to stocks.

Both gold and bonds rallied as stocks fell hard after Brexit (the referendum for the UK to exit the EU) was passed in favor of the “leave the EU” crowd. The British Parliament still must ratify the results of the referendum. The Brits have committed temporary financial suicide in exiting the EU which is likely to impose some level of punitive damages upon the U.K. as it seeks to renegotiate the terms of its trade agreements with the European continent. It has to make up for the financial losses of the UK’s prior contribution to the EU.

I expect a lot of jawboning this week particularly from our Fed, which just can’t seem to keep it’s mouth shut in the first place. Fed blabbing is far too tempting at this point as the markets could spin further out of control.

Votes are being collected for a re-referendum in the UK. After all, fair is fair and the Brexit crowd was already threatening to demand a redo vote prior to the completion of this week’s Brexit vote, as they were anticipating losing the 1st battle.

This is the problem with referenda: they amount to the abdication of leadership by those chosen to lead, or I suppose you could call it giving up their power in favor of the people, who are swayed by the emotions of fear and greed. Would you seriously want the average voter to decide on a nation’s trade agreements and immigration policy, when they have not even studied the issues in detail? Some do obviously, but in the US at the Federal level there is no such thing as a referendum for this precise reason. The majority very often wants to rule in its own favor, despite the consequences to the nation both economically and ethically.

What we can expect is greater uncertainty for months to years in Europe, so risk is now elevated for more downside stock market action, but the inherent momentum of those slowing economies was probably enough to bring them down over time in any case. This was simply the market’s excuse to accelerate another fall.

Shorting markets that have just fallen a good way is fraught with difficulty too as is deploying our excess cash too quickly. We’ll be patient and see if the SP500 Index 2020 to 2026 band of support works for the Bulls as we attempt to market time the next low as best we can. If it does not, I believe we can expect far more pain before this move ends. If we buy more at any given level, we will save some cash in case prices get even better.

SP500 Large Cap Index (click chart to enlarge; SPX, SPY): read below the chart for next support…

sp500-index-market-timing-chart-2016-06-24-close

It must hold nearby support or expect much more downside.

Survey Says! Sentiment this week among individual investors (AAII.com) showed a Bull minus Bear percentage spread at minus 13.2% this past Wednesday (Bulls 22.0%% and Bears 35.20% with Neutrals a Bullish 42.8%% [over 40% Neutrals is Bullish for market timing 6 months out]). It will be interesting to see what damage Brexit has done to U.S. investor confidence. This survey was concluded the evening before the Brexit vote started coming in.

Please keep up to date at Twitter and StockTwits: See my messages on Twitter® Follow Me on Twitter®. Follow Me on StockTwits®).

2. I repeat: U.S. Small caps are STILL above the 1040.47 level that for me defines a Bear market transition point. Time will tell whether the small caps will head back into Bear market territory, but given their lack of earnings, we are staying clear of them.

Russell 2000 U.S. Small Cap Index (click chart to enlarge; RUT, IWM):

rut-small cap-index-market-timing-chart-2016-06-24-close

Small caps will fall farther than large on the way down. That’s how it works. It’s called “beta.”

3. Gold: Gold broke up and out and can make further progress, but I would expect some consolidation (sideways move) over a few days. Note the green arrows by the big green volume spikes and you’ll see why I say that.

I’m glad we stuck with our gold and gold stock positions despite the press saying that Brexit was going to be defeated (see Twitter/StockTwits feeds at the links). The dollar moved up with gold as it does normally during financial panic. Thank you gold for doing your job for us!

Gold ETF (click chart to enlarge the chart; GLD):

gld-gold-etf-market-timing-chart-2016-06-24-close

Gold shines when there is financial panic, and we were ready for it.

4. U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note Yield (TNX): We saw yet another retest of the lows following the British vote, but things will look far worse to the Treasury and equity markets if we arrive at new lows, so keep track of the 10 Year Yield this week! Remember that rates RISE in a solid economy. Well, you can forget a July rate hike by the Fed now. It’s off the table. New lows in yields mean more economic trouble is possible.

U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note Yield (click chart to enlarge; TNX,TYX,TLT,TBF):

tnx-10-year-treasury-note-market-timing-chart-2016-06-24-close

Bouncing again from the prior lows. We’ll watch for lower lows.

Stay with me throughout the week for the LATEST via the links to Twitter/StockTwits above. Feel free to comment, retweet etc. to spread the word.

Be sure to visit the website for more general investing knowledge at:

Sun and Storm Investing™

Standard Disclaimer: It’s your money and your decision as to how to invest it.

Posted in Bonds, federal reserve, gold, investment, investor sentiment, large cap stocks, S&P 500 Index, small cap stocks, Treasuries | Tagged 10 year treasury, aaii sentiment survey, aaii survey, fed rate hike, federal reserve, gld, gold etf, investor sentiment, iwm, market timing, rate hikes, rut, sp500 index, spx, spy, survey says, tlt, tnx, vix volatility index | 1 Comment

Market Timing Brief™ for the 6-17-2016 Close: SP500 Faltering in the Range as the Fed Loses Power. Gold Strong Despite Rate Bounce Off Low.

Posted on June 19, 2016 by David Durand

A Market Timing Report based on the 6-17-2016 Close, published Sunday June 19th, 2016

I deliver focused comments on the markets. These are supplemented with “Tweets/StockTwits” (see links below).

1. SP500 Index: If you want to do market timing, the first thing you have to have a beat on is the Federal Reserve. The Fed FOMC statements resemble a word game in which some words are introduced and others are added each month to say something very similar from meeting to meeting or something completely different, the latter of which tends to shock the markets. My comments follow the changes below…

The summary statement is that the Fed has lost its power to influence the economy any further. Whatever they might do at this point to open the spigots further would be destructive.

Don’t worry. The Charts are just below the Fed comments. Be patient, as it is worth your time to understand what the market is reacting to in some detail.

Here are the changes in the Fed Statement that were made since the last meeting:

BOLD BLACK = NEW ADDED

RED = OLD REMOVED

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in April indicates that the pace of improvement in the labor market [conditions have improved further even as] has slowed while growth in economic activity appears to have [slowed] picked up.

We have to do market timing around these paradoxes. This is remarkable! It’s the reverse of what we had last time. We are employing more people, while producing less. It’s no wonder productivity is on the decline, which in turn is a bad substrate for rising wages and consumption.

Although the unemployment rate has declined, job gains have diminished. Growth in household spending [moderated, although households’ real income has risen at a solid rate and consumer sentiment remains high] has strengthened.

Pluses: More are employed and spending is higher.

Since the beginning of the year, the housing sector has [improved further] continued to improve and the drag from net exports appears to have lessened,

Both pluses.

but business fixed investment [and net exports have] has been soft.

Minus. Businesses invest in themselves when there is growth in the economy.

[A range of recent indicators, including strong job gains, points to additional strengthening of the labor market.]

Minus. See below. The last line of my excerpt shows that the Fed believes the slowing in employment growth is transitory.

Inflation has continued to run below the Committee’s 2 percent longer-run objective, partly reflecting earlier declines in energy prices and [falling] in prices of non-energy imports.

Dollar strength does that as well as worldwide slowing resulting in deflation. There is too much production capacity across the world at the moment.

Market-based measures of inflation compensation [remain low] declined;

Not good as it indicates deflationary pressure.

most survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance, in recent months.

The Fed thinks the “market” is wrong and inflation expectations matter more than the bets being placed on Wall Street and in Chicago.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee currently expects that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace and labor market indicators will [continue to] strengthen.

Slowing employment gains = “It’s transitory.” That’s the Fed’s mantra for everything they don’t like.

Here is the tough medicine for all Fed heads (and the gridlocked Congress!): You are NOT supposed to be running the economy. The economy is supposed to run itself, and there is supposed to be some contribution from our gridlocked government in the form of conservative fiscal policies that aid in the formation of companies that will create completely new products. But because you have interfered at an unprecedented level and imagined yourselves as the all-powerful creators of the economy, the economy has now been overstimulated past the needs and desires of consumers for its goods on a worldwide basis.

For this reason, the economy is now slowing and the economic cycle is about to turn on you, the thoughtless interest thieves that you are. You have stolen from more conservative investors, the savers who generally have less, and have given the money to relative risk takers, who on average had more, but now the game is up as you are driving the entire banking and insurance industries into the dust beneath your egotistical feet. (This is not a vote against capitalism, but rather, for the belief that everyone should benefit from our economic success. My Dad who passed away in December ran a great small business in which he took care of his workers as well as his own family. We should follow that same model for the country.)

That concludes my message to the Fed. I know I should really state my opinion in a stronger way. 😉 They seriously need to have someone or something wake them up!

Now let me explain why very low rates are toxic over long periods of time. It’s because banks and insurance companies make money off the spread between the cost of borrowing money and the return on loaning out that money. Many have already made long term promises to investors to return 5% per year as is common in the insurance industry. How long can they keep that up with the yield on the 30 year US Treasury Bond at 2.432% this week? When do they simply go bust?

What’s the good news? Due to the exact same misguided policies of the Fed discussed above, we can expect that the markets will be LESS likely to sell off immediately, and I expect, or guesstimate that the market could still rally with the expected intermittent corrections to an even higher level than that already achieved. It could be that we only rise a few percent above the prior ALL TIME HIGH and then collapse into a true Bear market. In any case, we are staying long the U.S. for now.

SP500 Large Cap Index (click chart to enlarge; SPX, SPY): read below the chart for next support…

sp500-index-market-timing-chart-2016-06-17-close

Can the Bulls hold this level?

Survey Says! Sentiment still supports the Bulls. Sentiment this week among individual investors (AAII.com) showed a Bull minus Bear percentage spread at MINUS 12.15% this past Wednesday (Bulls 25.35%% and Bears 37.50% with Neutrals a Bullish 37.15%%). There is clearly room for this to expand, but as we saw very unenthusiastic interest in the market near the prior high, there is room for Bears and Neutrals to convert if given reasons to do so. Perhaps it will be the failure of Brexit to be passed in the UK that helps the Bulls grow their ranks.

Please keep up to date at Twitter and StockTwits: See my messages on Twitter® Follow Me on Twitter®. Follow Me on StockTwits®).

2. I repeat: U.S. Small caps are STILL above the 1040.47 level that for me defines a Bear market transition point. The trend is still up but another higher high is needed! Your risk will be higher here in small caps if the market decides to test lower instead of higher. That’s right, you are in the middle of a range now. It is difficult to market time the middle of a range. That is why we prefer to buy off the lows and let go of some exposure near highs. I see SP500 of 2020 as the nearby support. For RUT, support is around 1109. Earnings have been so poor over the past year for small caps in particular that they are likely range-bound at best. We’ll stick to mid caps and large caps.

Russell 2000 U.S. Small Cap Index (click chart to enlarge; RUT, IWM):

rut-small cap-index-market-timing-chart-2016-06-17-close

Small caps have made progress but unlikely to have earnings to support a big move.

3. Gold: Gold initially swooned after the Fed as Treasury rates reversed from the prior low. I expect gold can continue its rally in the midst of negative interest rates abroad and exceedingly low rates in the U.S., but it must take out that 123.96 level and then 125.58.

UPDATE 6-20-16: The immediate challenge to gold is the dissipation of financial panic over Brexit this morning. The dollar and gold move up together in financial panic and down together when it lessens. The continuation of negative interest rates abroad and low rates in the U.S. will provide support for a further gold rally despite this “set back.” Note that any reversal of those policies will make thing tough on gold.

Gold ETF (click chart to enlarge the chart; GLD):

gld-gold-etf-market-timing-chart-2016-06-17-close

Testing 123.96 right now. Bounced back after initial swoon.

4. U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note Yield (TNX): No negative rates yet thank you, says the Treasury market. The Fed kept rates steady vs. negative rates abroad, which is why there was a retest of the prior major low.

U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note Yield (click chart to enlarge; TNX,TYX,TLT,TBF):

tnx-10-year-treasury-note-market-timing-chart-2016-06-17-close

Rates bounce off the prior major low.

Stay with me throughout the week for the LATEST via the links to Twitter/StockTwits above. Feel free to comment, retweet etc. to spread the word.

Be sure to visit the website for more general investing knowledge at:

Sun and Storm Investing™

Standard Disclaimer: It’s your money and your decision as to how to invest it.

Posted in Bonds, federal reserve, gold, investment, investor sentiment, large cap stocks, S&P 500 Index, small cap stocks, Treasuries | Tagged 10 year treasury, aaii sentiment survey, aaii survey, fed rate hike, federal reserve, FOMC statement, gld, gold etf, investor sentiment, iwm, market timing, rate hikes, rut, sp500 index, spx, spy, survey says, tlt, tnx | Leave a comment

Market Timing Brief™ for the 6-10-2016 Close: SP500 Being Tested by the Rest of the World. Gold Reviving as Rates Plunge.

Posted on June 12, 2016 by David Durand

A Market Timing Report based on the 6-10-2016 Close, published Sunday June 4th, 2016

I deliver focused comments on the markets. These are supplemented with “Tweets/StockTwits” (see links below).

1. SP500 Index: The sluggish recovery we’ve had since 2009 is becoming even more sluggish. In the wake of a big U.S. unit labor cost increase as well as a reduction in productivity recorded in this week’s economic statistics and a decent 94.3 Consumer Confidence number, the SP500 Index may be headed into a test. Economic productivity is falling, which cannot support wage increases, yet labor costs are rising quickly due to lower unemployment. Businesses cannot hire workers from the general pool, when that pool does not have the required skills. There is a big mismatch that has to be made up for through education. High consumer confidence is certainly good, but may also indicate that the economic cycle is about to turn. Despite these pressures, the index remains above the yellow trend line shown below.

Perhaps the “muddle through” slow growth levels we’re witnessing around the world can sustain the U.S. rally a bit further; however, the big declines in the rest of the world’s stock markets on Friday are not what you want to see in the backdrop and are a cautionary sign. They were certainly a big drag for the US markets on Friday.

SP500 Large Cap Index (click chart to enlarge; SPX, SPY):

sp500-index-market-timing-chart-2016-06-10-close

Testing a top.

Survey Says! Sentiment still supports the Bulls. We are near a high and the sentiment spread is a big ZERO. Sentiment this week among individual investors (AAII.com) showed a Bull minus Bear percentage spread at +0.0% this past Wednesday (Bulls 27.8% and Bears 27.8% with Neutrals a Bullish 44.3%; Neutral Scores > 40 are Bullish for markets rising 6 months out.).

Sentiment alone suggests that this rally is not over. Sure there could be another correction, but big Bull markets don’t end with flat sentiment near tops, unless it’s different this time, which it rarely is.

Please keep up to date at Twitter and StockTwits: See my messages on Twitter® Follow Me on Twitter®. Follow Me on StockTwits®).

2. U.S. Small caps are STILL above the 1040.47 level that for me defines a Bear market transition point. See last week’s post on the larger view of things. The trend is still up. So far, this is just a back-test, which enables rallies to continue. Remember that if this turns into a deeper correction, the losses among small caps will be much greater than for large (small caps are higher beta stocks).

Russell 2000 U.S. Small Cap Index (click chart to enlarge; RUT, IWM):

rut-small cap-index-market-timing-chart-2016-06-10-close

Small caps made a higher low and a higher high. Only a lower low would shift the trend.

3. Gold: Gold is reviving and was even up WITH the U.S. dollar at the end of the week, which is one of the defining features of financial panic. Something to watch closely if it continues. The panic resulted with rates crashed further in Germany and Japan last week dragging U.S. Treasuries down with them. A further breakout will add lots of fuel to the gold rally if it happens. It will also tell you that the market believes that Fed rate hikes are a dream for now.

Gold ETF (click chart to enlarge the chart; GLD):

gld-gold-etf-market-timing-chart-2016-06-10-close

Gold revives and rises even as the US dollar strengthens, a sign of panic.

4. U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note Yield (TNX): Rates broke lower still with the crash of yields abroad. Will U.S. yields follow the rest of the world into the negative? I personally hope not, as the implications of that would not be good.

U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note Yield (click chart to enlarge; TNX,TYX,TLT,TBF):

tnx-10-year-treasury-note-market-timing-chart-2016-06-10-close

Rates crash.

Stay with me throughout the week for the LATEST via the links to Twitter/StockTwits above. Feel free to comment, retweet etc. to spread the word.

Be sure to visit the website for more general investing knowledge at:

Sun and Storm Investing™

Standard Disclaimer: It’s your money and your decision as to how to invest it.

Posted in Bonds, federal reserve, gold, investment, investor sentiment, large cap stocks, S&P 500 Index, small cap stocks, Treasuries | Tagged 10 year treasury, aaii sentiment survey, aaii survey, eur/usd, fed rate hike, federal reserve, gld, gold etf, investor sentiment, iwm, market timing, rate hikes, rut, sp500 index, spx, spy, survey says, tbf, tlt, tnx, tyx, usdx, uup | Leave a comment

Market Timing Brief™ for the 6-03-2016 Close: SP500 Index Reacts Little to Falling Employment Growth In “Muddle Through” Economy. Gold Soars as Rates Plunge On Weak Employment Growth.

Posted on June 5, 2016 by David Durand

A Market Timing Report based on the 6-03-2016 Close, published Sunday June 4th, 2016

I deliver focused comments on the markets. These are supplemented with “Tweets/StockTwits” (see links below).

1. SP500 Index: The employment numbers were not good this week. Only 38,000 new jobs were created in the prior month. That’s not an expansion vs. population growth, and it could turn into a contraction, or…

The “Or” is what I’ve been referring to as the “Muddle Through Scenario.” If the economy continues churning out 0.5% to 1.0% growth for a couple of quarters, the market would probably be OK with it, although individual companies would be at risk. Weak performers will be clocked come next earnings season.

Mediocre growth may actually be preferred by this market, because faster growth will trigger interest rate hikes.

I should add quickly that a rate hike is not an issue IF the economy is in fact strong. That is the natural progression of things. Rates go up when the economy is strong and stocks go up not down at the same time.

The issue now is that the Federal Reserve has made the market overly dependent on loose money and tightening could lead to a contraction, sending the economy into a full recession (two quarters or more of negative GDP). Buybacks have enabled companies to inflate earnings per share by reducing the share number with cheap loans courtesy of the Fed. All of that benefit unwinds at higher rates.

We will continue to stay long with a reduced overall exposure level (see Twitter/StockTwits to see what that is this past week; links below) as long as current conditions do not deteriorate further.

SP500 Large Cap Index (click chart to enlarge; SPX, SPY):

sp500-index-market-timing-chart-2016-06-03-close

Initial reaction to failing employment growth was muted.

Survey Says! Sentiment this week among individual investors (AAII.com) showed a Bull minus Bear percentage spread at JUST +1.1% this past Wednesday (Bulls 30.17% and Bears 29.05% with Neutrals a Bullish 40.78%; Neutral Scores > 40 are Bullish for markets rising 6 months out.).

Note that although we are near prior market highs for the SP500 Index, sentiment is NOT very Bullish at all. This itself is Bullish! Another reason to stay long as the doubters are converted along the way to higher asset prices. When I see sentiment maxed out at a peak in the market, I consider taking some profits off the table.

Please keep up to date at Twitter and StockTwits: See my messages on Twitter® Follow Me on Twitter®. Follow Me on StockTwits®).

2. U.S. Small caps are STILL above the 1040.47 level that for me defines a Bear market transition point. Small caps are NOT in a Bear market in my view. They are at worst trading in a very large range.

There are multiple higher lows in place, so the Bullish view would be that there was an important reversal back above 1040ish and we have a new up trend above the yellow down trend line shown on the chart below.

The Bear view would be that the 12-2015 high needs to be exceeded and then the prior all time high may not be exceeded.

Russell 2000 U.S. Small Cap Index (click chart to enlarge; RUT, IWM):

rut-small cap-index-market-timing-chart-2016-06-03-close

The recovery in small caps is not over yet.

3. Gold: I said “The red line is a line in the sand for gold Bulls.” That was the place to buy if you were Bullish. Or to sell put options on the gold miners as I did recently, closer to the lows. The weaker the economy is, the better it is for gold, because the Federal Reserve will be leaning dovish, attempting to weaken the U.S. dollar (See 2nd chart down). In a Bull market, BUY PULLBACKS, not the rips, in general. The big gold rally on Friday came with increasing volume, which is BULLISH.

Gold ETF (click chart to enlarge the chart; GLD):

gld-gold-etf-market-timing-chart-2016-06-03-close

There was a rush back into gold predictably off the previous lows.

Gold’s gain is the U.S. Dollar Pain (UUP, USDX, EUR/USD): The U.S. dollar has resumed its down trend.

uup-us-dollar-market-timing-chart-2016-06-03-close

Gold’s gain is the dollar’s pain.

4. U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note Yield (TNX): Rates broke the triangle I pointed out last week to the downside, meaning treasuries rallied. I believe they will persist at low levels until the current economic weakness passes.

U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note Yield (click chart to enlarge; TNX,TYX,TLT,TBF):

tnx-10-year-treasury-note-market-timing-chart-2016-06-03-close

Yields fell dramatically on the economic weakness revealed by the employment numbers this week.

Stay with me throughout the week for the LATEST via the links to Twitter/StockTwits above. Feel free to comment, retweet etc. to spread the word.

Be sure to visit the website for more general investing knowledge at:

Sun and Storm Investing™

Standard Disclaimer: It’s your money and your decision as to how to invest it.

Posted in Bonds, federal reserve, gold, investment, investor sentiment, large cap stocks, S&P 500 Index, small cap stocks, Treasuries | Tagged 10 year treasury, aaii sentiment survey, aaii survey, eur/usd, fed rate hike, federal reserve, gld, gold etf, investor sentiment, iwm, market timing, rate hikes, rut, sp500 index, spx, spy, survey says, tbf, tlt, tnx, tyx, usdx, uup | Leave a comment

Market Timing Brief™ for the 5-27-2016 Close: SP500 Index Climbs In a “Muddle Through” Economy. Gold Slips Under Dollar Pressure as Rates Remain Contained.

Posted on May 30, 2016 by David Durand

A Market Timing Report based on the 5-27-2016 Close, published Monday May 30, 2016

I deliver focused comments on the markets. These are supplemented with “Tweets/StockTwits” (see links below).

1. SP500 Index: The first revision of Q1 GDP was a bit better at 0.8% than the prior reading of 0.5%. Next week we get the employment numbers.
Since the Fed says it’s “data dependent,” the current bias toward raising rates perhaps as early as June may prevail if the employment figures are very strong. A big disappointment could find the Fed speak shifting back to dovishness. I believe that a “muddle through economic scenario” will be rewarded with gradually higher stock prices.

SP500 Large Cap Index (click chart to enlarge; SPX, SPY):

sp500-index-market-timing-chart-2016-05-27-close

SP500 Index making further progress above the prior down trend line (in yellow).

Survey Says! Sentiment this week among individual investors (AAII.com) showed a Bull minus Bear percentage spread at -11.6% this past Wednesday (Bulls 17.8% and Bears 29.4% with Neutrals a Bullish 52.9%; Neutral Scores > 40 are Bullish for markets rising 6 months out.). The 52.9% Neutral Score is extraordinarily high.

Please keep up to date at Twitter and StockTwits: See my messages on Twitter® Follow Me on Twitter®. Follow Me on StockTwits®).

2. As I did last week, let me say every week until we see a break that the U.S. Small caps are STILL above the 1040.47 level that for me defines a Bear market transition point. The small caps have nearly recovered to the prior April high. Not bad for a “go away in May” crowd.

Russell 2000 U.S. Small Cap Index (click chart to enlarge; RUT, IWM):

rut-small cap-index-market-timing-chart-2016-5-27-close

Small caps recovering to the April high.

3. Gold: Gold has suffered as predicted under the pressure of the U.S. dollar’s strength. The red line is a line in the sand for gold Bulls.

Gold ETF (click chart to enlarge the chart; GLD):

gld-gold-etf-market-timing-chart-2016-05-27-close

Gold needs to find support very soon. The US dollar strength has been taking a toll.

4. U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note Yield (TNX): Rates remain in a triangle despite the fear of Fed hikes. I believe they will persist at low levels until the current economic weakness passes.

U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note Yield (click chart to enlarge; TNX,TYX,TLT,TBF):

tnx-10-year-treasury-note-market-timing-chart-2016-05-27-close

Rates caught in a triangle.

Stay with me throughout the week for the LATEST via the links to Twitter/StockTwits above. Feel free to comment, retweet etc. to spread the word.

Be sure to visit the website for more general investing knowledge at:

Sun and Storm Investing™

Standard Disclaimer: It’s your money and your decision as to how to invest it.

Posted in Bonds, federal reserve, gold, investment, investor sentiment, large cap stocks, S&P 500 Index, small cap stocks, Treasuries | Tagged 10 year treasury, aaii sentiment survey, aaii survey, fed rate hike, federal reserve, gld, gold etf, investor sentiment, iwm, market timing, rate hikes, rut, sp500 index, spx, spy, survey says, tbf, tlt, tnx, tyx | Leave a comment

Market Timing Brief™ for the 5-20-2016 Close: Fed Hike Back On for June/July. SP500 Index Rallies Off Support. Gold Still On Pause vs. Dollar Strength and Rising Rates.

Posted on May 22, 2016 by David Durand

A Market Timing Report based on the 5-20-2016 Close, published Sunday May 22, 2016

I deliver focused comments on the markets. These are supplemented with “Tweets/StockTwits” (see links below).

1. SP500 Index: The SP500 Index rallied a bit off of support, but must now rise above the yellow down trend line shown in the chart below. Good news for the economy needs to be seen as “good” now or this rally will fail into a Fed hike. When the economy is actually improving, rate hikes are accepted as necessary, but they are very unwelcomed when the economy is seen as weaker than the Fed is admitting.

The Fed’s minutes showed the committee is leaning toward a hike either in June or July despite the disbelief of the bond market. Rates DID spike after the Fed minutes release and then eased a bit. I believe the Fed is ahead of the economy, but if they feel justified by the current economic date, they will raise rates in June or July ahead of the election to avoid interfering with the election. The next hike will come in Dec. 2016 or Jan 2017 if the economy allows it.

SP500 Large Cap Index (click chart to enlarge; SPX, SPY):

sp500-index-market-timing-chart-2016-05-20-close

Yellow trend line is next Bull target.

Survey Says! Sentiment fell further this week among individual investors (AAII.com) with the Bull minus Bear percentage spread at -14.8% this past Wednesday (Bulls 19.34% and Bears 34.10% with Neutrals a Bullish 46.56%; Neutral Scores > 40 are Bullish for markets rising 6 months out.). Sentiment can move either way from here. There have been rallies and continued sell-offs from spreads at this level. I would say sentiment is not in the way of a rally, and is predictive of upside 6 months from now.

Please keep up to date at Twitter and StockTwits: See my messages on Twitter® Follow Me on Twitter®. Follow Me on StockTwits®).

2. As I did last week, let me say every week until we see a break that the U.S. Small caps are STILL above the 1040.47 level that for me defines a Bear market transition point. Small caps rallied strongly with large caps off their support, but you can see that there is immediate overhead resistance than must be sliced through to the upside. The chart for now looks like the index is fighting a slide to a test of 1040ish.

Russell 2000 U.S. Small Cap Index (click chart to enlarge; RUT, IWM):

rut-small cap-index-market-timing-chart-2016-05-20-close

Small caps spike in the large cap rally off of support.

3. Gold: Gold is on pause short of financial panic due to the Fed’s insistence on raising rates in June or July. Fed hikes mean the U.S. dollar rises further, at least until the economy shows it is still slowing, demanding a more dovish Fed. Stronger dollar means weaker gold short of financial panic when both ascend together.

Gold ETF (click chart to enlarge the chart; GLD):

gld-gold-etf-market-timing-chart-2016-05-20-close

Gold on pause with the dollar getting Fed support.

4. U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note Yield (TNX): Rates spiked on Fed rate hike fears for June/July as I predicted on social media early in the month. The Fed has to sneak a hike in prior to the Fall election contest if they want one. I am not saying they cannot raise after that and prior to the election, but they would have to have a very strong reason for doing so based on the economic data.

U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note Yield (click chart to enlarge; TNX,TYX,TLT,TBF):

tnx-10-year-treasury-note-market-timing-chart-2016-05-20-close

Rates spike with threat of Fed rate hike.

Stay with me throughout the week for the LATEST via the links to Twitter/StockTwits above. Feel free to comment, retweet etc. to spread the word.

Be sure to visit the website for more general investing knowledge at:

Sun and Storm Investing™

Standard Disclaimer: It’s your money and your decision as to how to invest it.

Posted in Bonds, federal reserve, gold, investment, investor sentiment, large cap stocks, S&P 500 Index, small cap stocks, Treasuries | Tagged 10 year treasury, aaii sentiment survey, aaii survey, fed rate hike, federal reserve, gld, gold etf, investor sentiment, iwm, market timing, rate hikes, rut, sp500 index, spx, spy, survey says, tbf, tlt, tnx, tyx | Leave a comment

Market Timing Brief™ for the 5-13-2016 Close: Good Is Now Bad. SP500 Index and Small Caps Reverse. Gold Pausing but in Up Trend. Rates Dive.

Posted on May 15, 2016 by David Durand

A Market Timing Report based on the 5-13-2016 Close, published Sunday May 15th, 2016

I deliver focused comments on the markets. These are supplemented with “Tweets/StockTwits” (see links below).

1. SP500 Index: The SP500 Index fell below the yellow down trend line I’ve been pointing out after GOOD economic news including higher consumer sentiment and stronger retail sales than were expected (see my Twitter feed to the right/StockTwits link below). When “good news is bad,” it means the market may begin anticipating a June Fed rate hike or that the economy is weaker than the data just released would indicate. (See prior post for targets and the social media links for updates.)

SP500 Large Cap Index (click chart to enlarge; SPX, SPY):

sp500-index-market-timing-chart-2016-05-13-close

SP500 could have more downside.

Survey Says! Sentiment fell back a bit this week among individual investors (AAII.com) with the Bull minus Bear spread at -10.9% this past Wednesday (Bulls 20.41% and Bears 31.29% with Neutrals a Bullish 48.30%; Neutral Scores > 40 are Bullish for markets rising 6 months out.). There is STILL no sentiment extreme from the perspective of the AAII data. The lack of a sentiment value in the range of prior major lows of -20% to -30% does not mean the market cannot rally. We are only 4.0% off the prior high of 5-22.2015. That’s right, we are down 4% from a high of about 1 full year ago, which is known as making no progress. Subtract off the dividends and it’s still a small loss for the 12 month period.

Please keep up to date at Twitter and StockTwits: See my messages on Twitter® Follow Me on Twitter®. Follow Me on StockTwits®).

2. Let me say every week until we see a break that the U.S. Small caps are STILL above the 1040.47 level that for me defines a Bear market transition point. Small caps did in fact follow the large caps down as predicted.

Russell 2000 U.S. Small Cap Index (click chart to enlarge; RUT, IWM):

rut-small cap-index-market-timing-chart-2016-05-13-close

Small caps vulnerable again.

3. Gold: Gold is on pause, but held the up trend line despite US dollar strength In real panic, the gold up trend would resume while the dollar also rises. The U.S. and other developed nations are trading off in a range of currency weakness. The US dollar reached the bottom of the range “allowed,” and bounced. I am not saying it’s an outright conspiracy, but all the players are watching and protecting a range of currency strength.

Gold ETF (click chart to enlarge the chart; GLD):

gld-gold-etf-market-timing-chart-2016-05-13-close

Gold holding up, but needs to break out again.

4. U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note Yield (TNX): The Atlanta Fed now expects 2.8% GDP for Q2. I doubt it will happen. Their initial estimates were way off last time too (way too high; 2.6% guesstimate in Feb. vs. a 0.5% for the initial Q1 reading). Higher energy prices will help dampen losses elsewhere in the economy, but oil could be at the top of a range now. If oil falls from here, we could dip into recession by Q3.

U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note Yield (click chart to enlarge; TNX,TYX,TLT,TBF):

tnx-10-year-treasury-note-market-timing-chart-2016-05-13-close

Rates still falling.

Stay with me throughout the week for the LATEST via the links to Twitter/StockTwits above. Feel free to comment, retweet etc. to spread the word.

Be sure to visit the website for more general investing knowledge at:

Sun and Storm Investing™

Standard Disclaimer: It’s your money and your decision as to how to invest it.

Posted in Bonds, federal reserve, gold, investment, investor sentiment, large cap stocks, S&P 500 Index, small cap stocks, Treasuries | Tagged 10 year treasury, aaii sentiment survey, aaii survey, Atlanta Fed, fed rate hike, federal reserve, GDP Estimate, gld, gold etf, investor sentiment, iwm, market timing, rate hikes, rut, sp500 index, spx, spy, survey says, tbf, tlt, tnx, tyx | Leave a comment

Market Timing Brief™ for the 4-29-2016 Close: SP500 Index At A Turning Point? Small Caps About to Reverse? Gold Breaks Out with Falling Rates after the Fed.

Posted on May 1, 2016 by David Durand

A Market Timing Report based on the 4-29-2016 Close, published Sunday May 1st, 2016

I deliver focused comments on the markets. These are supplemented with “Tweets/StockTwits” (see links below).

1. SP500 Index: The SP500 Index fell below the yellow down trend line I’ve been pointing out. I believe there will be more downside, perhaps to a test around the 50 day moving average at best (2032.31 currently) and a back-test to 1947.20 if the Bears gain company at the exits. If we go that low, we’ll reassess things.

SP500 Large Cap Index (click chart to enlarge; SPX, SPY):

sp500-index-market-timing-chart-2016-04-29-close

Some Downside Action Starts.

Survey Says! Sentiment fell back to flat this week among individual investors (AAII.com) with the Bull minus Bear spread at +1.2% this past Wednesday (Bulls 27.37% and Bears 28.60% with Neutrals a Bullish 44.03%; Neutral Scores > 40 are Bullish for markets rising 6 months out.). There is STILL no sentiment extreme from the perspective of the AAII data.

Please keep up to date at Twitter and StockTwits: See my messages on Twitter® Follow Me on Twitter®. Follow Me on StockTwits®).

2. U.S. Small caps are STILL above the 1040.47 level that for me defines a Bear market transition point. Small caps remain BARELY above the yellow down trend line. I suspect they cannot hold up if the large caps continue a pullback. Beware of high beta stocks when volatility rises.

Russell 2000 U.S. Small Cap Index (click chart to enlarge; RUT, IWM):

rut-small cap-index-market-timing-chart-2016-04-29-close

Small caps still above the down trend line, but are vulnerable.

3. Gold: Gold has broken out despite the threat that we are nearing an important U.S. dollar low. (see prior gold posts) The increased volume on the upswing is a good sign for now. If the dollar reverses hard, watch out for your gold and gold stock profits. They could evaporate quickly. Only outright financial panic tends to drive the dollar and gold up together. The easiest course for gold would be to rise in the context of a dollar break of the prior lows.

Gold ETF (click chart to enlarge the chart; GLD):

gld-gold-etf-market-timing-chart-2016-04-29-close

Gold breaks out despite the US dollar being at a low.

4. U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note Yield (TNX): Rates moved down after the Fed statement pointed out that growth had slowed. The market expects dovishness from the Fed in the face of a 0.5% GDP reading this last Thursday for Q1’s first estimate. Note the reversal from above to below the 1.90% level in the chart below.

U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note Yield (click chart to enlarge; TNX,TYX,TLT,TBF):

tnx-10-year-treasury-note-market-timing-chart-2016-04-29-close

Decline in rates resumes post-Fed.

Stay with me throughout the week for the LATEST via the links to Twitter/StockTwits above. Feel free to comment, retweet etc. to spread the word.

Be sure to visit the website for more general investing knowledge at:

Sun and Storm Investing™

Standard Disclaimer: It’s your money and your decision as to how to invest it.

Posted in Bonds, federal reserve, gold, investment, investor sentiment, large cap stocks, S&P 500 Index, small cap stocks, Treasuries | Tagged 10 year treasury, aaii sentiment survey, aaii survey, fed rate hike, federal reserve, gld, gold etf, investor sentiment, iwm, market timing, rate hikes, rut, sp500 index, spx, spy, survey says, tbf, tlt, tnx, tyx | Leave a comment

Market Timing Brief™ for the 4-22-2016 Close: SP500 At A Turning Point? Foolhardy Small Cap Rally? Gold Still On Hold. Rate Fears Rising.

Posted on April 24, 2016 by David Durand

A Market Timing Report based on the 4-22-2016 Close, published Sunday April 24th, 2016

I deliver focused comments on the markets. These are supplemented with “Tweets/StockTwits” (see links below).

1. SP500 Index: We remain above the down trend line (in yellow), but there were some disappointing results and reactions for Alphabet (GOOGL), Microsoft (MSFT), Starbucks (SBUX), and VISA (V). U.S. interest rates were rising even in the midst of a worldwide slowdown as the U.S. is still considered the best market in a slowing world economy. Earnings may provide additional challenges to April returns which are often positive. The “Go Away In May” sellers may soon emerge.

The technical picture alone does not suggest this needs to be the end of the run, while the earnings and economic trends do suggest a period of digestion of gains is in order.

SP500 Large Cap Index (click chart to enlarge; SPX, SPY):

Survey Says! Sentiment rose a bit this week among individual investors (AAII.com) with the Bull minus Bear spread at +9.5% this week (Bulls 33.41% and Bears 23.92% with Neutrals a Bullish 42.67%; Neutral Scores > 40 are Bullish for markets rising 6 months out.). There is certainly no sentiment extreme from the perspective of the AAII data.

Please keep up to date at Twitter and StockTwits: See my messages on Twitter® Follow Me on Twitter®. Follow Me on StockTwits®).

2. U.S. Small caps are STILL above the 1040.47 level that for me defines a Bear market transition point. Small caps have made progress above the yellow down trend line. This is remarkable given the lack of small cap GAAP earnings over the past 12 months. Is this just more hope that the Fed will save the day? They certainly won’t accomplish that through the lack of rate hikes.

Russell 2000 U.S. Small Cap Index (click chart to enlarge; RUT, IWM):

3. Gold: Gold is holding up, still under threat of a dollar that is due to rise. (see prior gold posts)

Gold ETF (click chart to enlarge the chart; GLD):

4. U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note Yield (TNX): Rates have bounced at a time that Germany is selling debt out 8 years at NEGATIVE RATES. Yes, you get to pay to have your money held for 8 years. What a deal! It is doubtful that U.S. interest rates will be able to climb much under these circumstances. At some level, the market may be seeing a rate hike as early as June. The CME Group predicts just a 36% chance of that at this point with the September risk rising to 47%. The Fed issues a statement on April 27th without a dog and pony show following the 2 pm ET release. A hike would be met by fireworks as it is unexpected.

U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note Yield (click chart to enlarge; TNX,TYX,TLT,TBF):

tnx-10-year-treasury-note-market-timing-chart-2016-04-22-close

U.S. Rates rising a bit…despite negative rates elsewhere in the world.

Stay with me throughout the week for the LATEST via the links to Twitter/StockTwits above. Feel free to comment, retweet etc. to spread the word.

Be sure to visit the website for more general investing knowledge at:

Sun and Storm Investing™

Standard Disclaimer: It’s your money and your decision as to how to invest it.

Posted in Bonds, federal reserve, gold, investment, investor sentiment, large cap stocks, S&P 500 Index, small cap stocks, Treasuries | Tagged 10 year treasury, aaii sentiment survey, aaii survey, fed rate hike, federal reserve, gld, gold etf, investor sentiment, iwm, market timing, rate hikes, rut, sp500 index, spx, spy, stock market bounce, survey says, tbf, tlt, tnx, tyx | Leave a comment

Sun and Storm Investing Market Timing Blog™

Market Timing Brief™ for the 7-01-2016 Close: SP500 Index Bounces Hard Post-Brexit. Gold Takes Off Further as Rates Retest a Major Low.

Market Timing Brief™ for the 6-24-2016 Close (6-30-2016 UPDATE): SP500 Takes a Brexit Hit. Gold Spikes as Rates Retest Prior Low and Bounce.

Market Timing Brief™ for the 6-17-2016 Close: SP500 Faltering in the Range as the Fed Loses Power. Gold Strong Despite Rate Bounce Off Low.

Market Timing Brief™ for the 6-10-2016 Close: SP500 Being Tested by the Rest of the World. Gold Reviving as Rates Plunge.

Market Timing Brief™ for the 6-03-2016 Close: SP500 Index Reacts Little to Falling Employment Growth In “Muddle Through” Economy. Gold Soars as Rates Plunge On Weak Employment Growth.

Market Timing Brief™ for the 5-27-2016 Close: SP500 Index Climbs In a “Muddle Through” Economy. Gold Slips Under Dollar Pressure as Rates Remain Contained.

Market Timing Brief™ for the 5-20-2016 Close: Fed Hike Back On for June/July. SP500 Index Rallies Off Support. Gold Still On Pause vs. Dollar Strength and Rising Rates.

Market Timing Brief™ for the 5-13-2016 Close: Good Is Now Bad. SP500 Index and Small Caps Reverse. Gold Pausing but in Up Trend. Rates Dive.

Market Timing Brief™ for the 4-29-2016 Close: SP500 Index At A Turning Point? Small Caps About to Reverse? Gold Breaks Out with Falling Rates after the Fed.

Market Timing Brief™ for the 4-22-2016 Close: SP500 At A Turning Point? Foolhardy Small Cap Rally? Gold Still On Hold. Rate Fears Rising.

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